Match Info

Carioca C - Play Offs - Final

Date: 31 August 2025, Sunday


	Santa Cruz RJ		Paraty

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.71	3.51
	4.45	3.53	1.73	Watch
	1.75	3.66	3.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (1.77)	3.63 ↑ (3.6)	3.06 ↓ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Cruz RJ
38.3%

Draw
28.2%

Paraty
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

25.1%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

24.1%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Cruz RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Santa Cruz RJ's form might have worsened.

Paraty has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Paraty's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz RJ than the current prediction. (+14.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santa Cruz RJ, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paraty than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Paraty, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Santa Cruz RJ - Paraty Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Negueba ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', 1 - 1, Jorge Eduardo ⚽,
61', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca C (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca C (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

In this match, Santa Cruz RJ is a strong favorite.

We predict that Santa Cruz RJ will win today's game, with odds of 1.77.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Santa Cruz RJ won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Santa Cruz RJ won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Cruz RJ
Brazilian Carioca C
28.08.25	Santa Cruz RJ - Riostrense	6:2 ✺
24.08.25	Riostrense - Santa Cruz RJ	1:3 ✺
27.07.25	Angra dos Reis - Santa Cruz RJ	3:2 ✺
20.07.25	Santa Cruz RJ - Riostrense	4:3 ✺
14.07.25	Barcelona RJ - Santa Cruz RJ	0:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWLWW
- SE Paraty
Brazilian Carioca C
28.08.25	Paraty - União Central	0:0 ✺
24.08.25	União Central - Paraty	2:2 ✺
04.08.25	Duque Caxiense - Paraty	0:1 ✺
27.07.25	Paraty - EC Resende	4:1 ✺
23.07.25	União Central - Paraty	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Carioca C
03.07.25	Paraty - Santa Cruz RJ	3:3
09.06.24	Santa Cruz RJ - Paraty	1:0

Santa Cruz RJ - Paraty: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide