Match Info

Serie D - Round 7

Date: 1 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio José do Rego Maciel (Recife)


	Santa Cruz Recife		Ferroviário Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.5	5
	1.56	3.55	5.6
	1.55	3.45	5.82
	1.64	3.86	4.96
	1.56	3.55	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.47)	3.58 ↓ (3.95)	5.4 ↓ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Cruz Recife
57.7%

Draw
25.4%

Ferroviário Fortaleza
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.2%

22.8%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.2%

21.7%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Cruz Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Ferroviário Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santa Cruz Recife, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviário Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviário Fortaleza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Thiaguinho ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
69', 2 - 0, Thiaguinho ⚽,
71', 2 - 1, Rivas K. ⚽,
85', 3 - 1, Geovany Soares ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santa Cruz won 1.

Santa Cruz is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ferroviário has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Santa Cruz is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Santa Cruz will win today's game, with odds of 1.49.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Santa Cruz won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Santa Cruz won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Serie D
25.05.25	Sousa - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1 ✺
18.05.25	Central SC - Santa Cruz Recife	1:2 ✺
09.05.25	Santa Cruz Recife - América RN	2:1 ✺
03.05.25	Santa Cruz de Natal - Santa Cruz Recife	0:0 ✺
27.04.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Horizonte	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WWWTW
- Ferroviário Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie D
25.05.25	Ferroviário Fortaleza - América RN	1:0 ✺
18.05.25	Treze - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
11.05.25	Sousa - Ferroviário Fortaleza	4:0 ✺
04.05.25	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Horizonte	1:0 ✺
26.04.25	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Santa Cruz de Natal	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.03.23	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Santa Cruz Recife	2:1
Brazilian Serie C
15.08.21	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviário Fortaleza	0:0
14.06.21	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Santa Cruz Recife	1:0
05.12.20	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviário Fortaleza	3:3
04.10.20	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Santa Cruz Recife	1:3
05.07.19	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviário Fortaleza	0:2
05.05.19	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Santa Cruz Recife	3:0

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