Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Round 7

Date: 5 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Brazil	Brasileirao Play, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, UOL Play, Zapping
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Israel	Sport 4
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Portugal	Canal 11
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Usa	Fanatiz


	Santos		Botafogo SP

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.75	8.5	Watch
	1.35	4.8	8.5
	1.33	4.5	8.2
	1.31	5.05	10.11
	1.34	4.68	9.58	Watch
	1.33	4.4	9
	1.3	4.8	9.5	Watch
	1.33	4.5	8.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↑ (1.31)	4.69 ↓ (4.8)	8.95 ↓ (9.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
69.8%

Draw
19.8%

Botafogo SP
10.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.2%

19.4%

9.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.3%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Botafogo SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Santos - Botafogo SP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 29. Godoy L. 15. Joao Basso 14. Luan Peres 31. Escobar G. 8. Rincon T. 21. Diego Pituca (C) 49. Gabriel Bontempo 7. Soteldo Y. 11. Guilherme 9. Tiquinho Soares	1. Joao Carlos (G) 2. Wallison 4. Ericson 3. Alisson Cassiano 6. Risso G. 8. Gabriel Bispo 5. Edson (C) 10. Maciel L. 11. Jonathan Cafu 9. Alexandre Jesus 7. Silvinho
Substitutes
4. Gil 1. Joao Paulo (G) 44. Joao Pedro Chermont 5. Joao Schmidt 38. Kevyson 79. Luca Meirelles 25. Luisao 41. Mateus Xavier 47. Miguelito 10. Neymar 16. Thaciano 30. Vinicius Lira	23. Adriano (G) 13. Allyson 12. Brenno Klippel (G) 20. Douglas Baggio 18. Dramisino A. 15. Jean Mangabeira 16. Jean Victor 14. Joao Costa 17. Jonas Toro 19. Pablo Thomaz 22. Ruan Pablo 21. Willian Gabriel
Coaches
Caixinha P.	Marcio Zanardi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', Diego Pituca 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Tiquinho Soares (Pen),
39', Wallison 🟨,
45+4', Rincon T. 🟨,
45+4', Edson 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Neymar ↑,
46', Joao Basso ↓, Luisao ↑,
49', Alisson Cassiano 🟨,
52', Gabriel Bispo 🟨,
66', Gabriel Bispo ↓, Jean Mangabeira ↑,
66', Jonathan Cafu ↓, Douglas Baggio ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Alexandre Jesus ⚽, Douglas Baggio (A),
71', Wallison 🟨,
75', Silvinho ↓, Allyson ↑,
77', Luan Peres ↓, Gil ↑,
77', Soteldo Y. ↓, Thaciano ↑,
81', Escobar G. 🟨,
86', Rincon T. ↓, Luca Meirelles ↑,
89', Alexandre Jesus ↓, Jonas Toro ↑,
89', Ericson ↓, Joao Costa ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Santos won 4.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

In this match Santos is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Santos won 10 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 22:8 (average 1.5:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Santos won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 15:4 (average 1.7:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.02.25	Santos - São Paulo	3:1 ✺
29.01.25	São Bernardo - Santos	3:1 ✺
25.01.25	Velo Clube - Santos	2:1 ✺
22.01.25	Santos - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
19.01.25	Ponte Preta - Santos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WLLLT
- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.02.25	Portuguesa - Botafogo SP	3:2 ✺
29.01.25	Botafogo SP - Água Santa	1:1 ✺
26.01.25	Botafogo SP - São Bernardo	0:1 ✺
24.01.25	EC Noroeste - Botafogo SP	0:0 ✺
20.01.25	Botafogo SP - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
19.09.24	Botafogo SP - Santos	0:1
03.06.24	Santos - Botafogo SP	1:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
20.01.24	Botafogo SP - Santos	0:1
Copa do Brasil
26.04.23	Santos - Botafogo SP	1:0
11.04.23	Botafogo SP - Santos	0:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
29.01.22	Santos - Botafogo SP	0:1
10.04.21	Santos - Botafogo SP	0:0

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