Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 8

Date: 12 May 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	Santos		Ceará

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	3.25	Watch
	1.93	3.2	4.4
	2.45	2.9	3.3	Watch
	2.52	3.01	3.35
	2.41	2.96	3.38	Watch
	1.91	3.25	4.2
	2.38	3.06	3.46	Watch
	2.45	2.9	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (1.83)	3.04 ↓ (3.32)	3.58 ↓ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
41.6%

Draw
31.6%

Ceará
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

28.5%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

29.7%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Santos's form might have worsened.

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ceará's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ceará, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.3%	13%	8.7%

Santos - Ceará Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 2 - 50%). Ceará (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Santos (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Ceará (2.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Ceará (2.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Ceará (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (4.02) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Santos will win (16 of 20 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.47% – 97.53%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Ceará (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 13. Aderlan 2. Ze Ivaldo 14. Luan Peres 31. Escobar G. 8. Rincon T. (C) 49. Gabriel Bontempo 32. Rollheiser B. 16. Thaciano 7. Soteldo Y. 9. Tiquinho Soares	16. Fernando Miguel (G) 70. Fabiano 3. Marllon (C) 23. Willian Machado 79. Matheus Bahia 20. Diego 88. Fernando Sobral 10. Lucas Mugni 27. Galeano A. 9. Pedro Raul 7. Pedro Henrique
Substitutes
22. Barreal A. 36. Deivid Washington 21. Diego Pituca 70. Gabriel Veron 4. Gil 29. Godoy L. 20. Hyan 3. Joao Basso 1. Joao Paulo (G) 25. Luisao 33. Souza 6. Ze Rafael	29. Bruno Tubarao 33. Eder 18. Keiller (G) 99. Lele 97. Lourenco 31. Lucas Lima 22. Martinez A. 8. Matheus Araujo 30. Nicolas 40. Ramon Menezes 2. Ramos R. 19. Romulo
Coaches
Xavier C.	Leo Conde

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Rincon T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Lucas Mugni 🟨,
64', Thaciano ↓, Barreal A. ↑,
64', Aderlan ↓, Godoy L. ↑,
66', Fernando Sobral 🟨,
74', Fabiano ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
74', Lucas Mugni ↓, Romulo ↑,
77', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Deivid Washington ↑,
80', Fernando Sobral ↓, Lourenco ↑,
80', Pedro Henrique ↓, Bruno Tubarao ↑,
87', Pedro Raul ↓, Lele ↑,
89', Tiquinho Soares ↓, Gabriel Veron ↑,
89', Rincon T. ↓, Ze Rafael ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 2.

Santos has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ceará has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Ceará has had a series of home games.

Santos will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Santos: Barreal A. (Inactive) Guilherme (Inactive) Neymar (Hamstring Injury) Souza (Ankle Injury) Ze Rafael (Back Injury)

There will not play in Ceará: Aylon (Hamstring Injury) Bruno Ferreira (Injury)

There are questionable in Ceará: Fernandinho (Shoulder Injury) Gabriel Lacerda (Inactive) Luiz Otavio (Knee Injury) Richard (Achilles Tendon Injury) Richardson (Heel Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Santos won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 1:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 1.3:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.25	Grêmio - Santos	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Santos - CRB Maceio	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.25	Santos - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2 ✺
20.04.25	São Paulo - Santos	2:1 ✺
16.04.25	Santos - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LTLLW
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.25	Ceará - Vitória Salvador	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.04.25	Ceará - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.25	Ceará - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
21.04.25	Bahia - Ceará	1:0 ✺
15.04.25	Ceará - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
22.10.24	Santos - Ceará	1:0
05.07.24	Ceará - Santos	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
10.09.22	Ceará - Santos	2:1
21.05.22	Santos - Ceará	0:0
18.09.21	Ceará - Santos	0:0
05.06.21	Santos - Ceará	3:1
27.12.20	Santos - Ceará	1:1

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