Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 7

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	Ceará		Vitória Salvador

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.9	3.75	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.7
	2.3	2.95	3.5	Watch
	2.31	2.99	3.74
	2.27	2.98	3.66	Watch
	1.95	3.2	4
	2.23	3.1	3.56	Watch
	2.3	2.95	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (1.79)	3.02 ↓ (3.56)	3.68 ↓ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
42.8%

Draw
31.4%

Vitória Salvador
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

26.5%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

26.3%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ceará's form might have worsened.

Vitória Salvador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ceará, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vitória Salvador, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	37.5%	25%

Ceará - Vitória Salvador Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Vitória will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceará: 4% – 71%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 1 - 50%). Vitória (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Fernando Miguel (G) 70. Fabiano 3. Marllon (C) 23. Willian Machado 79. Matheus Bahia 20. Diego 88. Fernando Sobral 10. Lucas Mugni 27. Galeano A. 9. Pedro Raul 7. Pedro Henrique	1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 2. Claudinho 5. Lucas Halter (C) 77. Neris 83. Jamerson 28. Ricardo Ryller 8. Ronald Lopes 30. Matheuzinho 22. Lucas Braga 99. Carlinhos 39. Janderson
Substitutes
29. Bruno Tubarao 33. Eder 80. Guilherme Luiz 18. Keiller (G) 99. Lele 97. Lourenco 31. Lucas Lima 8. Matheus Araujo 30. Nicolas 40. Ramon Menezes 2. Ramos R. 19. Romulo	44. Baralhas 37. Bruno Xavier 27. Caceres R. 43. Edu 33. Erick 23. Fabricio 35. Fintelman (G) 7. Gustavo Silva 16. Hugo 38. Leo Pereira 11. Osvaldo 10. Wellington Rato
Coaches
Leo Conde	Thiago Carpini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Lucas Braga 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Fabiano ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
53', Matheuzinho 🟨,
56', 1 - 0, Marllon ⚽, Lucas Mugni (A),
58', Lucas Braga ↓, Erick ↑,
58', Ricardo Ryller ↓, Wellington Rato ↑,
58', Carlinhos ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
73', Lucas Mugni ↓, Romulo ↑,
78', Galeano A. ↓, Bruno Tubarao ↑,
78', Pedro Raul ↓, Lele ↑,
85', Matheuzinho ↓, Fabricio ↑,
90+2', Claudinho 🟨,
90+3', Pedro Henrique ↓, Nicolas ↑,
90+5', Neris ↓, Edu ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 2.

Recent form of Ceará has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Vitória's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ceará may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ceará is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Ceará: Bruno Ferreira (Injury)

There will not play in Vitória: Renato Kayzer (Thigh Injury) Willian Oliveira (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Ceará: Fernandinho (Shoulder Injury) Gabriel Lacerda (Inactive) Luiz Otavio (Knee Injury) Richard (Achilles Tendon Injury) Richardson (Heel Injury)

There are questionable in Vitória: Gabriel (Muscle Injury) Wellington Rato (Knee Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 26:23. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:9. (average 1.6:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Copa do Brasil
30.04.25	Ceará - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.25	Ceará - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
21.04.25	Bahia - Ceará	1:0 ✺
15.04.25	Ceará - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Juventude - Ceará	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLWL
- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Cerro Largo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	1:1 ✺
16.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Atlético Mineiro - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 TLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
13.08.23	Vitória Salvador - Ceará	1:0
10.05.23	Ceará - Vitória Salvador	0:2
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.03.23	Vitória Salvador - Ceará	2:0
24.04.21	Ceará - Vitória Salvador	2:0
06.03.21	Ceará - Vitória Salvador	3:1
Copa do Brasil
26.08.20	Vitória Salvador - Ceará	3:4
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
25.07.20	Ceará - Vitória Salvador	1:0

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