Match Info

Liga 2 - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia (Tarapoto)


	Unión Comercio		Moquegua

	1	X	2
	1.52	3.95	4.85
	1.51	3.91	4.72
	1.90	3.46	3.83	Watch
	1.51	4.2	5.14
	1.72	3.8	4.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.75)	3.86 ↑ (3.5)	4.52 ↑ (4.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Comercio
56.1%

Draw
23.7%

Moquegua
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

25.9%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

26.9%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Comercio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Moquegua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moquegua than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Unión Comercio - Moquegua Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Unión Comercio (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Unión Comercio (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Unión Comercio (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cordova M. (G) 13. Gonzalez N. 28. Jimenez O. 8. Marcos N. 3. Mena J. 4. Montoya C. 20. Morales G. 6. Ojeda A. 29. Perlaza V. (C) 26. Reategui M. 27. Villanueva C.	29. Figueroa R. (G) 17. Aguirre C. 11. Centurion L. 10. Chavez N. 90. Collazos J. 30. Granda J. (C) 6. Jimenez J. 22. Montenegro E. 24. Moreno K. 18. Rodriguez L. 8. Sanchez D.
Substitutes
9. Arrieta J. 18. Ayala J. 21. Cachique H. (G) 19. Delgado G. 39. Guerrero G. 15. Marines D. 24. Ordonez N. 7. Vargas C. 17. Vargas D.	23. Jimenez J. 7. Lasso C. 28. Lopez J. 9. Osorio A. 14. Ramirez C. 4. Rivera B. 42. Santibanez S. 49. Valladares G. (G) 5. Vasquez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
63', 1 - 0, ⚽,
88', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-2. 2nd leg.

Unión Comercio has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Moquegua is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Unión Comercio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Unión Comercio is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Unión Comercio won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Unión Comercio won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 2
12.10.25	Moquegua - Unión Comercio	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Unión Comercio - San Marcos	5:0 ✺
13.09.25	ADA Jaén - Unión Comercio	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Unión Comercio - Santos	2:1 ✺
24.08.25	Comerciantes Belén - Unión Comercio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWLWW
- Deportivo Moquegua
Peruvian Liga 2
12.10.25	Moquegua - Unión Comercio	2:1 ✺
05.10.25	Moquegua - ADA Jaén	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Universidad César Vallejo - Moquegua	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Moquegua - Carlos A. Mannucci	6:2 ✺
06.09.25	Cajamarca - Moquegua	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
12.10.25	Moquegua - Unión Comercio	2:1
06.07.25	Unión Comercio - Moquegua	1:1
18.05.25	Moquegua - Unión Comercio	1:0

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