Match Info

Liga 2 - Promotion Group - Round 6

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Max Augustín (Iquitos)


	Comerciantes Belén		Unión Comercio

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.15	2.68
	2.52	3.05	2.7
	2.42	3.35	2.7
	1.95	3.5	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (1.93)	3.26 ↓ (3.6)	2.85 ↓ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Comerciantes Belén
39.7%

Draw
28.1%

Unión Comercio
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

25.2%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

25.9%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Comerciantes Belén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Comerciantes Belén's form might have worsened.

Unión Comercio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comerciantes Belén than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Comerciantes Belén, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Unión Comercio, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Comerciantes Belén - Unión Comercio Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Comerciantes (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva L. (G) 3. Catashunga J. 19. Dominguez J. 27. Ferreira P. 32. Flores A. 7. Hurtado C. 10. Lemos M. 31. Navarro J. 21. Pereira G. 33. Valdeblanquez J. 16. Valverde M. (C)	31. Cordova M. (G) 9. Arrieta J. 28. Jimenez O. 8. Marcos N. 3. Mena J. 4. Montoya C. 20. Morales G. 6. Ojeda A. 29. Perlaza V. (C) 26. Reategui M. 27. Villanueva C.
Substitutes
22. Aburto B. 6. Arevalo F. 34. Bosmediano J. 24. Cortez M. 13. Garcia A. (G) 5. Pinedo D. 30. Tuesta J. 20. Ulloa J. 17. Vela P.	18. Ayala J. 33. Cuero J. 13. Gonzalez N. 39. Guerrero G. 15. Marines D. 16. Mendoza Cornejo F. G. 12. Quiroz R. (G) 14. Vargas C. 17. Vargas D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Jimenez O. 🟨,
29', 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Arrieta J. ⚽,
45+1', Morales G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Dominguez J. 🟨,
57', Villanueva C. ↓, Ayala J. ↑,
61', Jimenez O. 🟨,
67', Pereira G. ↓, Aburto B. ↑,
69', Morales G. ↓, Cuero J. ↑,
77', Navarro J. ↓, Cortez M. ↑,
79', 🟨,
79', 🟨,
86', Dominguez J. ↓, Tuesta J. ↑,
86', Valverde M. ↓, Ulloa J. ↑,
86', Hurtado C. ↓, Pinedo D. ↑,

Preview

Comerciantes has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Unión Comercio is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Comerciantes may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Comerciantes might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Comerciantes won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Comerciantes won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Comerciantes Belén
Peruvian Liga 2
16.08.25	Comerciantes Belén - Santos	3:0 ✺
01.08.25	San Marcos - Comerciantes Belén	1:0 ✺
26.07.25	Comerciantes Belén - ADA Jaén	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Belén	2:0 ✺
06.07.25	Bentín Tacna Heroica - Comerciantes Belén	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 WLTLL
- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 2
16.08.25	San Marcos - Unión Comercio	1:4 ✺
10.08.25	Unión Comercio - ADA Jaén	2:0 ✺
26.07.25	Santos - Unión Comercio	0:2 ✺
20.07.25	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Belén	2:0 ✺
06.07.25	Unión Comercio - Moquegua	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
20.07.25	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Belén	2:0
29.06.25	Comerciantes Belén - Unión Comercio	2:1
11.05.25	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Belén	2:1

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