Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 24 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Corona (Torreón)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Santos Laguna		Tijuana

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.8	1.91	Watch
	3.55	3.7	1.92
	3.45	3.89	2.06
	3.17	3.72	2.08	Watch
	3.18	4.08	2.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↑ (2.57)	3.84 ↑ (3.6)	2 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos Laguna
28.2%

Draw
24.6%

Tijuana
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

25.2%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

25.3%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos Laguna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Santos Laguna's form might have worsened.

Tijuana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tijuana's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos Laguna than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santos Laguna, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tijuana than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tijuana, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Santos Laguna - Tijuana Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Santos Laguna will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Tijuana will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tijuana: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos Laguna (votes: 1 - 25%). Tijuana (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Tijuana (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos Laguna (votes: 1 - 20%). Tijuana (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Acevedo C. (G) 4. Abella J. (C) 188. Perez J. 35. Balanta K. 2. Amione B. 20. Palacios K. 6. Guemez J. 26. Sordo R. 8. Mariscal Murra S. 9. Carrillo J. 13. Ocejo Zazueta J. A.	2. Rodriguez A. (C) 3. Inzunza R. 12. Porozo J. 6. Gomez A. 16. Vega A. 17. Arciga R. 34. Boya F. 8. Tona I. 21. El Ghezouani M. 11. Preciado A. 10. Castaneda K.
Substitutes
99. Barticciotto B. 195. Cedillo N. 7. Dajome C. 17. Echeverria E. 23. Gutierrez E. 33. Holguin H. (G) 5. Lopez A. 11. Lozano C. 24. Medina D. 19. Ortega H.	4. Bilbao U. 27. Blanco D. 20. Bullaude E. 15. Corona J. 5. Escamilla K. 29. Hernandez J. (G) 196. Leyva C. 9. Nicholson S. 33. Ortiz Orozco P. N. 7. Vitinho
Coaches
Rodriguez F.	Abreu S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Tona I. 🟨,
43', Vega A. 🟨,
45+3', Preciado A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Vega A. ↓, Ortiz Orozco P. N. ↑,
46', Tona I. ↓, Escamilla K. ↑,
50', Amione B. 🟨,
57', Carrillo J. ↓, Barticciotto B. ↑,
57', Ocejo Zazueta J. A. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
65', El Ghezouani M. ↓, Blanco D. ↑,
65', Castaneda K. ↓, Bullaude E. ↑,
65', Arciga R. ↓, Nicholson S. ↑,
69', Guemez J. 🟨,
72', Amione B. ↓, Echeverria E. ↑,
83', Sordo R. ↓, Dajome C. ↑,
84', Barticciotto B. 🟨,
85', Barticciotto B. 🟨,
90+3', Inzunza R. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 0, Dajome C. ⚽,
90+6', Dajome C. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos Laguna won 2.

Santos Laguna is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Tijuana has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tijuana may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tijuana might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Santos Laguna: Jimenez T. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santos Laguna won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 32:28. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Santos Laguna won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:13. (average 1.8:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos Laguna
Mexican Liga MX
21.09.25	Santos Laguna - Atlético San Luis	1:4 ✺
13.09.25	Atlas - Santos Laguna	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Santos Laguna - Tigres UANL	0:1 ✺
22.08.25	Juárez - Santos Laguna	2:1 ✺
16.08.25	Cruz Azul - Santos Laguna	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LTLLL
- Club Tijuana
Mexican Liga MX
19.09.25	Tijuana - Club León	5:0 ✺
Club Friendly
16.09.25	San Diego - Tijuana	4:2 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
14.09.25	Atlético San Luis - Tijuana	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Tijuana - Necaxa	3:0 ✺
22.08.25	Tijuana - Chivas Guadalajara	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
20.04.25	Santos Laguna - Tijuana	0:4
18.08.24	Tijuana - Santos Laguna	3:1
15.03.24	Tijuana - Santos Laguna	2:2
04.10.23	Santos Laguna - Tijuana	2:1
12.03.23	Santos Laguna - Tijuana	3:2
25.08.22	Tijuana - Santos Laguna	0:2
13.03.22	Santos Laguna - Tijuana	4:0

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