Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 31 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Caliente (Tijuana)

Referee: Ramos C. A. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports, Tubi TV
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Tijuana		Necaxa

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.6	2.85	Watch
	2.2	3.7	2.87
	2.32	3.55	2.78	Watch
	2.37	3.85	2.92
	2.33	3.78	2.71	Watch
	2.2	3.4	2.7
	2.32	3.75	2.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.31)	3.66 ↓ (3.98)	2.8 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tijuana
41%

Draw
25.6%

Necaxa
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

23.5%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

22.7%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tijuana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Necaxa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tijuana than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Tijuana - Necaxa Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Tijuana will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tijuana (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
2. Rodriguez A. (C) 3. Inzunza R. 12. Porozo J. 6. Gomez A. 16. Vega A. 34. Boya F. 8. Tona I. 19. Mora G. 17. Arciga R. 10. Castaneda K. 27. Blanco D.	22. Unsain E. (G) 15. Perez P. 5. Jacob T. 4. Pena A. (C) 24. Rossano F. 14. De Buen D. 7. Rosero K. 8. Palavecino A. 29. Rodriguez I. 30. Monreal R. 27. Cambindo D.
Substitutes
15. Corona J. 5. Escamilla K. 25. Franco R. 202. Gonzalez J. 29. Hernandez J. (G) 18. Mejia A. 9. Nicholson S. 11. Preciado A. 13. Reyes J. 7. Vitinho	13. Andrade A. 9. Badaloni T. 17. Cortez R. 19. Gomez D. 6. Jesus Alcantar 12. Jimenez L. (G) 2. Martinez E. 3. Oliveros A. 21. Rojas J. 11. Sanchez R.
Coaches
Abreu S.	Gago F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Monreal R. 🟥,
42', 1 - 0, Boya F. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', De Buen D. ↓, Badaloni T. ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Boya F. ⚽, Arciga R. (A),
57', Cambindo D. 🟨,
58', Cambindo D. 🟨,
59', Arciga R. ↓, Preciado A. ↑,
59', Badaloni T. 🟨,
66', Perez P. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
75', Blanco D. ↓, Vitinho ↑,
75', Castaneda K. ↓, Escamilla K. ↑,
75', Tona I. ↓, Nicholson S. ↑,
82', Boya F. 🟨,
84', Preciado A. 🟨,
84', 3 - 0, Preciado A. (Pen),
86', Mora G. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
89', Palavecino A. ↓, Gomez D. ↑,
89', Rosero K. ↓, Cortez R. ↑,
89', Rossano F. ↓, Jesus Alcantar ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tijuana won 1.

In recent matches, Tijuana has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Necaxa has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Necaxa: Calderon C. (Injury) Lara E. (Elbow Injury)

There are questionable in Tijuana: Bilbao U. (Knock)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tijuana won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 25:29. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Tijuana won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.4:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Tijuana
Mexican Liga MX
22.08.25	Tijuana - Chivas Guadalajara	3:3 ✺
16.08.25	Pachuca - Tijuana	0:2 ✺
09.08.25	Mazatlan - Tijuana	2:2 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
06.08.25	Seattle Sounders - Tijuana	2:1 ✺
03.08.25	Colorado Rapids - Tijuana	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.6 TWTLW
- Club Necaxa
Mexican Liga MX
23.08.25	Monterrey - Necaxa	3:0 ✺
15.08.25	Necaxa - Club León	0:1 ✺
10.08.25	UNAM - Necaxa	1:1 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
06.08.25	Orlando City - Necaxa	5:1 ✺
02.08.25	Inter Miami - Necaxa	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
04.04.25	Tijuana - Necaxa	1:2
18.10.24	Necaxa - Tijuana	1:2
05.04.24	Tijuana - Necaxa	2:3
07.07.23	Necaxa - Tijuana	1:1
03.02.23	Necaxa - Tijuana	1:1
18.09.22	Tijuana - Necaxa	1:1
18.02.22	Tijuana - Necaxa	1:1

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