Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 22 August 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Caliente (Tijuana)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports, Tubi TV
South-america	ViX Latin America
World	VIX App


	Tijuana		Chivas Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.6	2.15	Watch
	3.1	3.5	2.1
	3.05	3.55	2.18	Watch
	3.36	3.65	2.19
	2.9	3.25	2.15
	2.98	3.54	2.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 ↑ (2.49)	3.52 ↑ (3.43)	2.17 ↓ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tijuana
30.2%

Draw
26.7%

Chivas Guadalajara
43.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

27.4%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

27.6%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tijuana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tijuana's form might have worsened.

Chivas Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chivas Guadalajara's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tijuana than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tijuana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chivas Guadalajara, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Tijuana - Chivas Guadalajara Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Tijuana will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Guadalajara will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tijuana (votes: 1 - 25%). Guadalajara (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Tijuana (2.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Tijuana (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tijuana (votes: 3 - 50%). Guadalajara (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
2. Rodriguez A. (C) 3. Inzunza R. 12. Porozo J. 6. Gomez A. 16. Vega A. 17. Arciga R. 34. Boya F. 8. Tona I. 11. Preciado A. 10. Castaneda K. 19. Mora G.	1. Rangel R. (G) 4. Tapias M. 17. Romo L. 3. Sepulveda G. 37. Ledezma R. 19. Campillo Del Campo D. 15. Gutierrez E. (C) 5. Gonzalez B. 226. Sandoval S. 34. Gonzalez A. 10. Alvarez E.
Substitutes
15. Corona J. 25. Franco R. 202. Gonzalez J. 29. Hernandez J. (G) 196. Leyva C. 18. Mejia A. 9. Nicholson S. 24. Osuna D. 13. Reyes J. 7. Vitinho	23. Aguirre D. 25. Alvarado R. 26. Camberos H. 7. Cowell C. 24. Gomez M. 28. Gonzalez F. 2. Mozo A. 31. Padilla Y. 13. Whalley O. (G) 29. Wilke T.
Coaches
Abreu S.	Milito G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', Ledezma R. ↓, Mozo A. ↑,
5', 1 - 0, Mora G. ⚽,
44', Sepulveda G. 🟨,
45+3', Campillo Del Campo D. 🟨,
45+5', Preciado A. (Pen),
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', Campillo Del Campo D. ↓, Aguirre D. ↑,
46', Mozo A. ↓, Cowell C. ↑,
46', Tapias M. ↓, Alvarado R. ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Boya F. ⚽, Vega A. (A),
58', Arciga R. 🟨,
63', Tona I. 🟨,
64', 3 - 0, Mora G. ⚽,
69', Tona I. ↓, Mejia A. ↑,
70', Aguirre D. 🟨,
72', Aguirre D. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
73', Boya F. 🟨,
74', 3 - 1, Gonzalez A. ⚽, Gutierrez E. (A),
75', Castaneda K. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
75', Arciga R. ↓, Vitinho ↑,
80', Inzunza R. ↓, Corona J. ↑,
83', Gomez A. 🟨,
84', 3 - 2, Alvarez E. ⚽,
90+6', 3 - 3, Alvarado R. ⚽, Gomez M. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tijuana won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Tijuana has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Tijuana: Blanco D. (Red Card)

There will not play in Guadalajara: Chicharito (Calf Injury) Govea O. (Muscle Injury) Sepulveda L. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Tijuana: Bilbao U. (Knock)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tijuana won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 24:23. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Tijuana won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:8. (average 1.7:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Tijuana
Mexican Liga MX
16.08.25	Pachuca - Tijuana	0:2 ✺
09.08.25	Mazatlan - Tijuana	2:2 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
06.08.25	Seattle Sounders - Tijuana	2:1 ✺
03.08.25	Colorado Rapids - Tijuana	1:2 ✺
31.07.25	Los Angeles Galaxy - Tijuana	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.4 WTLWL
- Chivas Guadalajara
Mexican Liga MX
16.08.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Juárez	1:2 ✺
10.08.25	Santos Laguna - Chivas Guadalajara	1:0 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
07.08.25	Cincinnati - Chivas Guadalajara	1:2 ✺
03.08.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Charlotte	3:2 penalties ✺
31.07.25	Chivas Guadalajara - New York Red Bulls	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
09.02.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Tijuana	2:1
12.07.24	Tijuana - Chivas Guadalajara	4:2
26.01.24	Tijuana - Chivas Guadalajara	1:1
22.08.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Tijuana	1:0
15.02.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Tijuana	2:1
07.09.22	Tijuana - Chivas Guadalajara	1:2
19.04.22	Chivas Guadalajara - Tijuana	2:1

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