Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara)

Referee: Pacheco Larios G. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Atlas		Santos Laguna

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.75	3.9	Watch
	1.78	3.8	4
	1.85	3.7	3.7
	1.83	3.88	4.27
	1.40	5.01	6.68	Watch
	1.67	3.5	4.2	Watch
	1.85	3.9	4.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.71)	3.93 ↓ (3.97)	4.41 ↑ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlas
54.4%

Draw
24.1%

Santos Laguna
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

23.7%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

23.4%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Santos Laguna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlas than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos Laguna than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Atlas - Santos Laguna Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlas (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Atlas will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Vargas C. (G) 3. Gustavo Ferrareis 13. Aguirre G. 5. Matheus Doria 4. Mora A. 17. Lozano J. 11. Gonzalez D. 26. Rocha A. (C) 7. Coccaro M. 27. Rios De Alba V. H. 10. del Prete G.	1. Acevedo C. (G) 4. Abella J. (C) 188. Perez J. 35. Balanta K. 2. Amione B. 20. Palacios K. 6. Guemez J. 5. Lopez A. 7. Dajome C. 21. Villalba F. 99. Barticciotto B.
Substitutes
8. Garcia M. E. 58. Gonzalez A. 199. Hernandez S. 203. Martin J. 23. Orrantia C. 44. Pier R. 15. Ramirez P. 14. Ramos C. (G) 218. San Martin J. 192. Serrato J.	9. Carrillo J. 17. Echeverria E. 23. Gutierrez E. 33. Holguin H. (G) 11. Lozano C. 8. Mariscal Murra S. 24. Medina D. 13. Ocejo Zazueta J. A. 22. Prieto R. 26. Sordo R.
Coaches
Cocca D.	Rodriguez F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Amione B. ⚽, Abella J. (A),
5', 1 - 1, Coccaro M. ⚽,
7', 2 - 1, Gonzalez D. ⚽, Rocha A. (A),
15', Matheus Doria 🟨,
21', Balanta K. 🟨,
45', Abella J. 🟨,
45', Dajome C. 🟨,
45+1', del Prete G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Dajome C. ↓, Sordo R. ↑,
57', Guemez J. 🟨,
61', Abella J. ↓, Medina D. ↑,
61', Guemez J. ↓, Mariscal Murra S. ↑,
64', del Prete G. ↓, Ramirez P. ↑,
67', Acevedo C. 🟨,
69', Coccaro M. 🟥,
71', Villalba F. ↓, Carrillo J. ↑,
78', Lopez A. ↓, Ocejo Zazueta J. A. ↑,
90', Vargas C. 🟨,
90+1', 2 - 2, Ocejo Zazueta J. A. ⚽, Medina D. (A),
90+3', Mora A. 🟨,
90+5', Rocha A. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlas won 2.

Atlas has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Santos Laguna has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Atlas is the team to beat.

There will not play in Atlas: Aguirre E. (Muscle Injury) Cruz C. (Knee Injury) Djurdjevic U. (Yellow Cards) Manotas M. (Knee Injury) Ortega E. (Suspended) Rodriguez J. (Injury) Zaldivar E. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Santos Laguna: Ortega H. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Santos Laguna: Balanta K. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlas won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 21:21. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlas won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:11. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Santos Laguna - the odds 4.4 are the expected chance of winning is 21.33%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Atlas
Mexican Liga MX
31.08.25	UNAM - Atlas	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Atlas - Club América	2:4 ✺
17.08.25	Querétaro - Atlas	3:3 ✺
09.08.25	Atlas - Pachuca	0:3 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
06.08.25	Atlanta United - Atlas	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL
- Santos Laguna
Mexican Liga MX
30.08.25	Santos Laguna - Tigres UANL	0:1 ✺
22.08.25	Juárez - Santos Laguna	2:1 ✺
16.08.25	Cruz Azul - Santos Laguna	3:2 ✺
10.08.25	Santos Laguna - Chivas Guadalajara	1:0 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
07.08.25	Los Angeles Galaxy - Santos Laguna	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
23.02.25	Santos Laguna - Atlas	2:0
16.07.24	Atlas - Santos Laguna	1:0
04.02.24	Atlas - Santos Laguna	3:0
13.07.23	Santos Laguna - Atlas	0:0
26.01.23	Atlas - Santos Laguna	2:2
Copa por Mexico
12.12.22	Atlas - Santos Laguna	0:0
Mexican Liga MX
31.07.22	Santos Laguna - Atlas	1:0

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