Match Info

USL League One

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Premier Sports Campus (Lakewood Ranch, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Sarasota Paradise		Greenville Triumph

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.12	3.25	2.9
	2.26	3.4	2.82
	2.26	3.49	2.94	Watch
	2.2	3.3	2.75
	2.2	3.26	2.87	Watch
	2.14	3.25	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.38)	3.33 ↑ (3.2)	2.86 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarasota Paradise
41.2%

Draw
27.2%

Greenville Triumph
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

28.1%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

27%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarasota Paradise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Greenville Triumph has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarasota Paradise than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Greenville Triumph than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Sarasota Paradise - Greenville Triumph Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sutton A. (G) 24. Kiingi K. 4. Watters D. (C) 5. Sogaard A. 36. Rosa A. 16. Rodriguez A. 8. Walker A. 28. Gall R. 18. Krueger B. 17. Bolanos J. 46. Roed S.	13. Knight A. (G) 4. Sims T. 42. Bubb Z. 5. Fricke B. (C) 15. Patti A. 27. Nour M. 12. Lee E. 18. Evans C. 20. Villanueva A. 7. Boyce D. 9. Robles R.
Substitutes
23. Amedeka R. (G) 50. Brulinski D. 7. Bryant E. 2. Burlew R. 54. Fredericks L. 19. McLaughlin G. 27. O'Dwyer C. 32. Terzaghi E. 3. Valentine R.	6. Agyaakwah I. 77. Benton D. 22. Fritz K. 3. Polak T. 30. Torman S. (G) 23. White E. 14. Wu D.
Coaches
Elovaara M.	Tyson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Rosa A. ⚽, Bolanos J. (A),
13', 2 - 0, Krueger B. ⚽,
42', 3 - 0, Gall R. ⚽, Walker A. (A),
45+3', 4 - 0, Roed S. ⚽, Gall R. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Boyce D. ↓, White E. ↑,
46', Sims T. ↓, Fritz K. ↑,
46', Evans C. ↓, Agyaakwah I. ↑,
52', Watters D. 🟨,
54', 5 - 0, Bolanos J. ⚽, Krueger B. (A),
59', 6 - 0, Roed S. ⚽, Rosa A. (A),
61', Roed S. ↓, Terzaghi E. ↑,
61', Gall R. ↓, Brulinski D. ↑,
72', Krueger B. ↓, Bryant E. ↑,
82', Nour M. ↓, Benton D. ↑,
84', Lee E. ↓, Wu D. ↑,
86', Watters D. ↓, Valentine R. ↑,
87', Bolanos J. ↓, Fredericks L. ↑,
90+5', Benton D. 🟨,

Preview

A dramatic battle between two struggling sides fighting for survival points (ranked 13th and 15th).

Sarasota Paradise is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Greenville is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Sarasota Paradise could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Sarasota Paradise holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Sarasota Paradise has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	39:43	-4	33
16	Greenville	28	6	5	17	30:52	-22	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarasota Paradise
USL League One
12.09.26	Forward Madison - Sarasota Paradise	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Sarasota Paradise - Spokane Velocity	1:1 ✺
02.09.26	New York Cosmos - Sarasota Paradise	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Union Omaha - Sarasota Paradise	1:1 ✺
19.08.26	Sarasota Paradise - Chattanooga Red Wolves	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 TTWTW
- Greenville Triumph
USL League One
16.09.26	Greenville Triumph - Corpus Christi	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Greenville Triumph - Fort Wayne	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Chattanooga Red Wolves - Greenville Triumph	3:1 ✺
29.08.26	Greenville Triumph - Naples	4:0 ✺
22.08.26	Spokane Velocity - Greenville Triumph	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
08.07.26	Greenville Triumph - Sarasota Paradise	0:0

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