Match Info

USL League One

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Breese Stevens Field (Madison, WI)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Forward Madison		Sarasota Paradise

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.52	4.00	4.80
	1.50	3.80	5.20
	1.52	4.19	5.67
	1.64	4.04	4.68	Watch
	1.52	4.05	5.25
	1.59	4.04	5.18	Watch
	1.53	3.85	4.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.58)	4 ↑ (3.65)	5.08 ↑ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Forward Madison
59.1%

Draw
22.9%

Sarasota Paradise
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.5%

24.5%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.1%

22.3%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Forward Madison has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Sarasota Paradise has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forward Madison than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarasota Paradise than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Forward Madison - Sarasota Paradise Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Harms J. (G) 20. Carmichael K. (C) 33. Toure K. 7. Bolma J. 23. Munjoma E. 8. Segbers M. 12. Torres R. 6. Kanyane G. 9. Carmichael R. 14. Gyamfi S. 11. Ngoubou C.	1. Sutton A. (G) 24. Kiingi K. 4. Watters D. (C) 5. Sogaard A. 36. Rosa A. 16. Rodriguez A. 8. Walker A. 18. Krueger B. 7. Bryant E. 46. Roed S. 17. Bolanos J.
Substitutes
57. Augee B. 3. Edwards A. 99. Flores K. (G) 24. Forbes J. 38. Goumballe M. 19. Manske T. (G) 4. McCamy C. 5. Shannon J.	23. Amedeka R. (G) 50. Brulinski D. 2. Burlew R. 28. Gall R. 60. McGurk M. 27. O'Dwyer C. 61. Spengler J. 32. Terzaghi E. 3. Valentine R.
Coaches
Glaeser M.	Elovaara M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', Kiingi K. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Krueger B. ⚽, Bolanos J. (A),
44', Bolanos J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gyamfi S. ↓, McCamy C. ↑,
55', 1 - 1, Ngoubou C. ⚽, Kanyane G. (A),
58', Bolma J. 🟨,
64', Torres R. 🟨,
66', Bolma J. ↓, Edwards A. ↑,
67', Segbers M. ↓, Augee B. ↑,
71', Bryant E. ↓, Gall R. ↑,
79', Kiingi K. ↓, Valentine R. ↑,
79', Roed S. ↓, Terzaghi E. ↑,
79', Kanyane G. ↓, Forbes J. ↑,
88', Ngoubou C. ↓, Goumballe M. ↑,
90+3', Sogaard A. 🟨,
90+4', Krueger B. ↓, Brulinski D. ↑,
90+4', Rodriguez A. ↓, O'Dwyer C. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12).

Forward Madison is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sarasota Paradise has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Forward Madison may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Forward Madison is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Forward Madison will win today's game, with odds of 1.65.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Forward Madison won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Forward Madison ✔	29	15	7	7	50:27	23	52
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	39:43	-4	33

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Forward Madison
USL League One
05.09.26	Corpus Christi - Forward Madison	0:2 ✺
02.09.26	Forward Madison - One Knoxville	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Richmond Kickers - Forward Madison	0:2 ✺
22.08.26	Forward Madison - Charlotte Independence	1:1 ✺
16.08.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - Forward Madison	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WTWTW
- Sarasota Paradise
USL League One
05.09.26	Sarasota Paradise - Spokane Velocity	1:1 ✺
02.09.26	New York Cosmos - Sarasota Paradise	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Union Omaha - Sarasota Paradise	1:1 ✺
19.08.26	Sarasota Paradise - Chattanooga Red Wolves	3:2 ✺
15.08.26	Charlotte Independence - Sarasota Paradise	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
02.05.26	Sarasota Paradise - Forward Madison	1:3

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