Match Info

USL League One

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Premier Sports Campus (Lakewood Ranch, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Mexico	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Sarasota Paradise		Spokane Velocity

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.80	2.95	2.30
	2.75	3.10	2.32
	2.90	3.15	2.43
	2.93	3.15	2.43	Watch
	2.85	3.05	2.35
	2.85	3.06	2.36
	2.80	3.00	2.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.75)	3.07 ↓ (3.15)	2.36 ↑ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarasota Paradise
32%

Draw
29.6%

Spokane Velocity
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

28.4%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

28.4%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarasota Paradise has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Spokane Velocity has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarasota Paradise than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spokane Velocity than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Sarasota Paradise - Spokane Velocity Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sutton A. (G) 2. Burlew R. 4. Watters D. (C) 5. Sogaard A. 36. Rosa A. 16. Rodriguez A. 8. Walker A. 18. Krueger B. 19. McLaughlin G. 17. Bolanos J. 7. Bryant E.	1. Lewis S. (G) 13. Opara L. 20. Covi I. 12. Miller C. 18. Waldeck D. 19. Denton J. 6. Fernandez C. 11. John-Brown S. 10. Gil L. (C) 17. Alexandre M. 9. Brett N.
Substitutes
23. Amedeka R. (G) 54. Fredericks L. 28. Gall R. 24. Kiingi K. 27. O'Dwyer C. 46. Roed S. 52. Sanchez K. 32. Terzaghi E. 3. Valentine R.	4. Fitch S. 14. Hernandez M. 30. Lanier B. (G) 77. Lewis A. 33. Mensah M. 3. Spielman N. 8. Vinyals N.
Coaches
Elovaara M.	Veidman L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Bryant E. ⚽, Rosa A. (A),
41', Opara L. ↓, Fitch S. ↑,
45+6', Rosa A. 🟨,
45+6', John-Brown S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Burlew R. ↓, Kiingi K. ↑,
46', Krueger B. ↓, Gall R. ↑,
64', McLaughlin G. ↓, Terzaghi E. ↑,
64', Fernandez C. ↓, Lewis A. ↑,
64', Gil L. ↓, Vinyals N. ↑,
73', Alexandre M. ↓, Mensah M. ↑,
74', Denton J. ↓, Hernandez M. ↑,
77', Sogaard A. ↓, Valentine R. ↑,
81', Walker A. ↓, O'Dwyer C. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 1, Hernandez M. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Spokane may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sarasota Paradise has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sarasota Paradise won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Spokane Velocity	27	14	5	8	41:36	5	47
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	39:43	-4	33

Last Results with these Odds

Spokane Velocity - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 39.17%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarasota Paradise
USL League One
02.09.26	New York Cosmos - Sarasota Paradise	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Union Omaha - Sarasota Paradise	1:1 ✺
19.08.26	Sarasota Paradise - Chattanooga Red Wolves	3:2 ✺
15.08.26	Charlotte Independence - Sarasota Paradise	3:1 ✺
08.08.26	One Knoxville - Sarasota Paradise	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WTWLL
- Spokane Velocity
USL League One
29.08.26	Westchester SC - Spokane Velocity	1:3 ✺
22.08.26	Spokane Velocity - Greenville Triumph	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Spokane Velocity - Corpus Christi	2:3 ✺
USL Cup
12.08.26	Spokane Velocity - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	1:2 penalties ✺
USL League One
25.07.26	Spokane Velocity - Fort Wayne	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
24.05.26	Spokane Velocity - Sarasota Paradise	1:0

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