Match Info

USL League One

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Werner Park (Papillion, NE)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Mexico	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Union Omaha		Sarasota Paradise

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.46	4.20	5.25
	1.46	4.05	5.1
	1.48	4.4	5.73
	1.5	4.41	5.67	Watch
	1.46	4.35	5.65
	1.55	4.29	5.23	Watch
	1.47	4.1	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.61)	4.26 ↑ (3.7)	5.4 ↑ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Omaha
61.6%

Draw
21.5%

Sarasota Paradise
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.5%

24.2%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

23%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Omaha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Union Omaha's performance.

Sarasota Paradise has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Omaha than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarasota Paradise than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Union Omaha - Sarasota Paradise Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Nuhu R. (C) 23. Boudadi Y. 4. Owusu S. 14. Kallman B. 27. Jiba R. 6. Guediri S. 8. Gabriel Cabral 20. Ors Navarro S. 12. Vargas M. 17. Gutierrez D. 21. Gomez A.	1. Sutton A. (G) 2. Burlew R. 4. Watters D. (C) 6. Stretch C. 36. Rosa A. 16. Rodriguez A. 18. Krueger B. 46. Roed S. 27. O'Dwyer C. 17. Bolanos J. 32. Terzaghi E.
Substitutes
7. Billhardt A. 9. Botello Faz P. 28. Caceres E. 77. Gavilanes A. 99. Jensen C. (G) 3. Malone B. 22. Tekiela K.	23. Amedeka R. (G) 9. Bender J. 50. Brulinski D. 7. Bryant E. 11. Karani S. 3. Valentine R. 8. Walker A.
Coaches
Candela V.	Elovaara M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Stretch C. ⚽, Rodriguez A. (A),
29', Vargas M. 🟨,
43', Terzaghi E. 🟨,
45+4', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
45+6', Kallman B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Jiba R. ↓, Gavilanes A. ↑,
61', Gomez A. ↓, Botello Faz P. ↑,
61', Vargas M. ↓, Tekiela K. ↑,
63', Bolanos J. ↓, Bryant E. ↑,
63', Roed S. ↓, Walker A. ↑,
63', Burlew R. ↓, Valentine R. ↑,
73', Terzaghi E. ↓, Karani S. ↑,
78', Gutierrez D. ↓, Caceres E. ↑,
82', Krueger B. ↓, Brulinski D. ↑,
83', Boudadi Y. 🟨,
84', Ors Navarro S. ↓, Billhardt A. ↑,
90+1', Candela V. 🟨,
90+2', Karani S. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 1, Botello Faz P. ⚽, Gabriel Cabral (A),
90+6', Billhardt A. 🟨,
90+8', Botello Faz P. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 13).

Union Omaha is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sarasota Paradise's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Sarasota Paradise may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Union Omaha is a strong favorite.

We predict that Union Omaha will win today's game, with odds of 1.44.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Union Omaha won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Union Omaha ✔	29	19	4	6	53:31	22	61
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	39:43	-4	33

Last Results with these Odds

Union Omaha - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 55.52%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Omaha
USL League One
16.08.26	Union Omaha - Richmond Kickers	5:1 ✺
08.08.26	Chattanooga Red Wolves - Union Omaha	1:3 ✺
01.08.26	Fort Wayne - Union Omaha	0:2 ✺
22.07.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - Union Omaha	1:2 ✺
18.07.26	Union Omaha - Westchester SC	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWWWT
- Sarasota Paradise
USL League One
19.08.26	Sarasota Paradise - Chattanooga Red Wolves	3:2 ✺
15.08.26	Charlotte Independence - Sarasota Paradise	3:1 ✺
08.08.26	One Knoxville - Sarasota Paradise	2:1 ✺
USL Cup
11.07.26	Sarasota Paradise - Miami	0:5 ✺
USL League One
08.07.26	Greenville Triumph - Sarasota Paradise	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
13.06.26	Sarasota Paradise - Union Omaha	2:0

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