Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 21

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday


	Sarnese		Manfredonia

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.58	4.35	Watch
	1.66	3.44	4.79
	1.69	3.6	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.83)	3.54 ↑ (3.45)	4.49 ↑ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarnese
54%

Draw
25.7%

Manfredonia
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

26.4%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

26.2%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarnese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Manfredonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarnese than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manfredonia than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Sarnese - Manfredonia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', 1 - 0, ⚽,
73', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Serie D ~ Group H (Play Out: ) and 10).

Sarnese has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Manfredonia is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Sarnese is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sarnese won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Manfredonia	6	3	2	1	10:6	4	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarnese
Italian Serie D - Group H
18.01.26	Barletta - Sarnese	3:2 ✺
11.01.26	Sarnese - Afragolese	1:2 ✺
04.01.26	Pompei - Sarnese	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Sarnese - Virtus Francavilla	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Francavilla - Sarnese	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLTTW
- Manfredonia Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group H
18.01.26	Manfredonia - Pompei	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Virtus Francavilla - Manfredonia	2:0 ✺
04.01.26	Manfredonia - Francavilla	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Manfredonia - Acerrana	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Fidelis Andria - Manfredonia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group H
24.09.25	Manfredonia - Sarnese	4:2

Sarnese - Manfredonia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide