Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 20

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday


	Barletta		Sarnese

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.25	3.65
	1.91	3.37	3.68	Watch
	1.92	3.25	3.66
	1.92	3.33	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.2)	3.3 ↑ (3.18)	3.65 ↑ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barletta
47.5%

Draw
27.5%

Sarnese
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

28.6%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

27.8%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barletta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Barletta's performance.

Sarnese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sarnese might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barletta than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarnese than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Barletta - Sarnese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Mateus Castro ⚽,
17', 2 - 0, Mateus Castro ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
48', 3 - 0, ⚽,
67', 3 - 1, ⚽,
69', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group H (Play Offs: ) and 12).

Barletta is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sarnese has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Barletta might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Barletta - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 41.28%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barletta
Italian Serie D - Group H
11.01.26	Fidelis Andria - Barletta	0:0 ✺
04.01.26	Barletta - Virtus Francavilla	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Barletta - Nardo	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Acerrana - Barletta	0:4 ✺
07.12.25	Barletta - Heraclea	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TTTWW
- Sarnese
Italian Serie D - Group H
11.01.26	Sarnese - Afragolese	1:2 ✺
04.01.26	Pompei - Sarnese	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Sarnese - Virtus Francavilla	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Francavilla - Sarnese	0:4 ✺
07.12.25	Sarnese - Fidelis Andria	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LTTWW

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