Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 19

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday


	Sarnese		Afragolese

	1	X	2
	2.18	3.15	2.98
	2.14	3.34	3.06	Watch
	2.2	3	2.9
	2.18	3.2	3.03
	2.14	3.33	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.32)	3.2 ↓ (3.45)	2.99 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarnese
41.7%

Draw
28.2%

Afragolese
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

26.1%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

25.9%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarnese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Afragolese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarnese than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Afragolese than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Sarnese - Afragolese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
55', 0 - 1, ⚽,
74', 0 - 2, ⚽,
90+2', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 8).

Sarnese is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Afragolese has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sarnese won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarnese
Italian Serie D - Group H
04.01.26	Pompei - Sarnese	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Sarnese - Virtus Francavilla	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Francavilla - Sarnese	0:4 ✺
07.12.25	Sarnese - Fidelis Andria	2:1 ✺
30.11.25	Nardo - Sarnese	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 TTWWT
- Afragolese 1944
Italian Serie D - Group H
04.01.26	Afragolese - Città di Fasano	2:3 ✺
21.12.25	Afragolese - Francavilla	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Gravina - Afragolese	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Real Normanna - Afragolese	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Afragolese - Paganese	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group H
14.09.25	Afragolese - Sarnese	2:3

Sarnese - Afragolese: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide