Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 17

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Sarnese		Virtus Francavilla

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.1
	2.15	3.25	2.98
	2.13	3.2	3.21	Watch
	2.15	2.9	3.1
	2.12	3.14	3.21
	2.12	3.1	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.38)	3.12 ↓ (3.41)	3.14 ↑ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarnese
42.4%

Draw
28.9%

Virtus Francavilla
28.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38%

26.5%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

26.6%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarnese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Virtus Francavilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Virtus Francavilla might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarnese than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Virtus Francavilla than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Virtus Francavilla could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sarnese - Virtus Francavilla Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sarnese (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
70', 🟥,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 11).

Sarnese is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Virtus Francavilla has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarnese
Italian Serie D - Group H
14.12.25	Francavilla - Sarnese	0:4 ✺
07.12.25	Sarnese - Fidelis Andria	2:1 ✺
30.11.25	Nardo - Sarnese	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Sarnese - Acerrana	6:1 ✺
16.11.25	Nola - Sarnese	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWTWT
- Virtus Francavilla Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group H
14.12.25	Virtus Francavilla - Pompei	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Francavilla - Virtus Francavilla	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Fidelis Andria - Virtus Francavilla	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Virtus Francavilla - Afragolese	0:0 ✺
16.11.25	Nardo - Virtus Francavilla	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 TWWTL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Virtus Francavilla Calcio
Coppa Italia Serie D
28.10.26	Fidelis Andria - Virtus Francavilla	✺

Sarnese - Virtus Francavilla