Match Info

1. Lig - Round 12

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Yusuf Ziya Onis (Istanbul) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Copur M. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Asia	—	TOD
Turkey	19:00	beIN Connect


	Sarıyer		Fatih Karagümrükspor

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.20	3.10	Watch
	2.10	3.20	3.00
	2.14	3.10	3.05	Watch
	2.21	3.35	3.42
	2.18	3.48	3.08	Watch
	2.20	3.20	3.25
	2.18	3.33	3.22
	2.14	3.25	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.48)	3.26 ↓ (3.55)	3.16 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarıyer
42.7%

Draw
28.2%

Fatih Karagümrükspor
29.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.1%

25.9%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

25.3%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarıyer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sarıyer's performance.

Fatih Karagümrükspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fatih Karagümrükspor might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarıyer than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fatih Karagümrükspor than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fatih Karagümrükspor could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Sarıyer - Fatih Karagümrükspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Karagümrük will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Sehic I. (G) 23. Ergun U. 24. Arslan K. 3. Attamah J. 5. Korkmazoglu E. 7. Alici B. 28. Yesilyurt H. E. 53. Poko A. 10. Karaca E. (C) 90. Eze E. 17. Davas D.	1. Silvestri M. (G) 25. Sarikaya M. 4. Biraschi D. (C) 28. Cinar A. 21. Baskale C. 19. Onogo Y. 20. Siopis M. 26. Ahmed T. 5. Akbaba E. 41. Esen J. 9. Tosun C.
Substitutes
1. Akyuz F. (G) 4. Dikmen E. 14. Ergul T. 41. Gedik F. 11. Karadag E. 35. Kayali H. 9. Kor B. 19. Sen Y. 8. Silva M. 93. Thiam M.	22. Civelek R. 11. Cukur T. 14. Doh M. 24. Ersoy B. 7. Kalayci B. 33. Kurukalip C. 3. Nukan A. 23. Sen B. (G) 8. Tokoz D. 6. Yalcin R.
Coaches
Eskikoy U.	Stanojevic A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Ahmed T. ⚽,
39', Karaca E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Poko A. ↓, Ergul T. ↑,
60', 0 - 2, Tosun C. (Penalty Awarded),
61', Davas D. ↓, Thiam M. ↑,
61', Alici B. ↓, Karadag E. ↑,
67', Akbaba E. 🟨,
67', Esen J. ↓, Civelek R. ↑,
74', Tosun C. ↓, Cukur T. ↑,
74', Siopis M. ↓, Yalcin R. ↑,
74', Onogo Y. ↓, Doh M. ↑,
77', Karaca E. ↓, Kor B. ↑,
90+1', Akbaba E. ↓, Tokoz D. ↑,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8th and 13th).

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Karagümrük may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Sarıyer has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:5 (averaging 0:2.5 goals per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Karagumruk	12	4	4	4	16:15	1	16
11	Sariyer	12	4	4	4	14:17	-3	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarıyer
Turkish First League
17.10.26	Sivasspor - Sarıyer	1:1 ✺
13.10.26	Sarıyer - Bodrumspor	1:4 ✺
09.10.26	Umraniyespor - Sarıyer	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Sarıyer - Boluspor	2:1 ✺
11.09.26	Sarıyer - Bandırmaspor	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLTWT
- Fatih Karagümrükspor
Turkish First League
19.10.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Keçiörengücü	1:2 ✺
15.10.26	Mardin 1969 - Fatih Karagümrükspor	1:0 ✺
11.10.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Muğlaspor	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Erokspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Manisa FK	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Cup
04.12.24	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Sarıyer	3:0
01.12.21	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Sarıyer	2:0

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