Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 4

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Veltins Arena (Gelsenkirchen)

Referee: Braun R. (Ger)

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	Schalke 04		Elversberg

	1	X	2
	1.90	3.90	3.70	Watch
	1.85	4.00	3.75
	1.88	3.80	3.65	Watch
	1.92	4.15	3.96
	2.03	3.85	3.39	Watch
	1.88	3.90	3.90
	1.92	3.94	3.74	Watch
	1.87	4.10	3.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.05)	3.96 ↑ (3.64)	3.74 ↑ (3.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Schalke 04
50.2%

Draw
24.2%

Elversberg
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

26.2%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

27.7%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Schalke 04 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Elversberg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Schalke 04 than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elversberg than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	11.1%	55.6%

Schalke 04 - Elversberg Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Schalke will win (votes: 9 - 33.3%). Elversberg will win (votes: 15 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Elversberg: 36.9% – 74.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Karius L. (G) 5. Becker T. 25. Katic N. 4. Kurucay H. 29. Dina Ebimbe J. 23. El-Faouzi S. 13. Tanaka S. 8. Gosens R. 19. Karaman K. (C) 24. Aouchiche A. 10. Dzeko E.	20. Kristof N. (G) 30. Gyamerah J. 19. Pinckert L. (C) 31. Rohr M. 21. Gunther L. 43. Keidel F. 8. Poreba L. 25. Petkov L. 10. Darvich N. 39. Campbell C. 42. Mokwa Ntusu D.
Substitutes
20. Adamu J. 43. Ayhan M. 33. Becker V. 7. Hwang Hee-Chan 22. Muller K. (G) 6. Schallenberg R. 9. Sylla M. 38. Vozar L. 39. Wober M.	28. Boss T. (G) 6. Conde A. 9. Futkeu N. 7. Krattenmacher M. 3. Le Joncour F. 2. Mickelson N. 40. Onyeka F. 24. Schnellbacher L. 26. Sirch L.
Coaches
Muslic M.	Wagner V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Keidel F. 🟨,
37', Darvich N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Darvich N. ↓, Krattenmacher M. ↑,
51', Gyamerah J. ↓, Sirch L. ↑,
62', Kurucay H. 🟨,
62', Dzeko E. ↓, Sylla M. ↑,
62', Becker T. ↓, Wober M. ↑,
70', Gosens R. ↓, Becker V. ↑,
70', Aouchiche A. ↓, Hwang Hee-Chan ↑,
76', Mokwa Ntusu D. ↓, Futkeu N. ↑,
76', Gunther L. ↓, Mickelson N. ↑,
78', Tanaka S. ↓, Schallenberg R. ↑,
87', Campbell C. ↓, Onyeka F. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Schalke won 3.

Schalke has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Elversberg is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Elversberg may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Schalke is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Schalke: Kalas T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Ljubicic D. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Elversberg: Seifert L. (Ankle Injury) Zimmerschied T. (Back Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Elversberg: Onyeka F. (Injury).

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Schalke has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:7 (averaging 1.7:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Schalke against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 3:4 goals (averaging 1:1.3 per game).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Schalke: 0.32% Elversberg: 0.32%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Elversberg	5	2	1	2	8:8	0	7
13	Schalke	4	1	2	1	3:4	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Elversberg - the odds 3.51 are the expected chance of winning is 27.18%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Schalke 04
German Bundesliga
11.09.26	Union Berlin - Schalke 04	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Schalke 04 - Bayern Munich	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Augsburg - Schalke 04	3:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
24.08.26	Hallescher - Schalke 04	2:5 AET ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.26	Schalke 04 - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WTLWL
- SV Elversberg
German Bundesliga
13.09.26	Elversberg - Bayern Munich	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Elversberg	3:4 ✺
29.08.26	Elversberg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.08.26	Duisburg - Elversberg	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Elversberg - Lorient	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
12.04.26	Elversberg - Schalke 04	1:2
08.11.25	Schalke 04 - Elversberg	1:0
18.05.25	Schalke 04 - Elversberg	1:2
20.12.24	Elversberg - Schalke 04	1:4
19.04.24	Elversberg - Schalke 04	1:1
10.11.23	Schalke 04 - Elversberg	1:2

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