Match Info

DFB Pokal - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion (Dresden) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Haslberger W. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Asia	—	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Austria	18:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Mix
Brazil	14:00	Disney+
Bulgaria	19:00	Nova Sport
Croatia	18:00	Voyo
Czech Republic	18:00	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
France	18:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6
Germany	18:00	DFB Play, RTL+, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 3, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Hong Kong	01:00	M Plus Live
Mexico	11:00	Disney+
Netherlands	18:00	Ziggo Sport
Norway	18:00	VG+
Portugal	17:00	DAZN / App
Slovakia	18:00	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Switzerland	18:00	Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
Ukraine	19:00	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Arab Emirates	21:00	Abu Dhabi Sports 2
International	17:00	OneFootball TV


	Dynamo Dresden		Schalke 04

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.5	2.05	Watch
	3.20	3.70	2.10
	3.25	3.6	2.12
	3.4	3.75	2.13
	3.37	3.67	2.07	Watch
	3.3	3.65	2.05
	3.35	3.56	2.04	Watch
	3.2	3.45	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.31 ↓ (3.83)	3.61 ↓ (3.87)	2.08 ↑ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dynamo Dresden
28.5%

Draw
26.1%

Schalke 04
45.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

24.4%

24.1%

51.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.7%

23.5%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dynamo Dresden has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Schalke 04 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Schalke 04 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dynamo Dresden than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Schalke 04 than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Schalke 04 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	18.2%	81.8%

Dynamo Dresden - Schalke 04 Predictions

Users Predictions: Schalke 04 will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Grill L. (G) 32. Sterner J. 6. Rapp N. 42. Muller F. 44. Straudi S. 18. Wagner R. 21. Raschl T. 24. Covic P. 27. Hauptmann N. (C) 20. Bobzien B. 9. Vermeij V.	1. Karius L. (G) 43. Ayhan M. 25. Katic N. (C) 4. Kurucay H. 38. Vozar L. 29. Dina Ebimbe J. 13. Tanaka S. 33. Becker V. 24. Aouchiche A. 10. Dzeko E. 7. Hwang Hee-Chan
Substitutes
33. Daferner C. 16. Froling N. 8. Herrmann L. 11. Inanoglu K. 10. Lemmer J. 17. Muhamedbegovic A. 34. Neininger T. 19. Rossipal A. 1. Schreiber T. (G)	20. Adamu J. 5. Becker T. 40. Gashi E. 19. Karaman K. 11. Lasme B. 21. Ljubicic D. 22. Muller K. (G) 35. Ndiaye J. 27. Porath F.
Coaches
Stamm T.	Muslic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Dzeko E. 🟨,
44', Hwang Hee-Chan 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', 1 - 0, Covic P. ⚽,
60', Covic P. 🟨,
60', Aouchiche A. 🟨,
61', Vozar L. ↓, Karaman K. ↑,
68', Straudi S. ↓, Rossipal A. ↑,
68', Covic P. ↓, Lemmer J. ↑,
70', Ayhan M. ↓, Becker T. ↑,
70', Dina Ebimbe J. ↓, Ljubicic D. ↑,
75', Hauptmann N. ↓, Daferner C. ↑,
75', Vermeij V. ↓, Herrmann L. ↑,
77', Hwang Hee-Chan ↓, Adamu J. ↑,
82', Muller F. ↓, Muhamedbegovic A. ↑,
88', Rapp N. 🟨,
88', Katic N. 🟨,
89', 2 - 0, Daferner C. ⚽, Rossipal A. (A),
90+4', Tanaka S. 🟨,

Preview

Recent results have been tough for Dynamo Dresden (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Schalke has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Schalke could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Schalke has had a run of games away from home.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Schalke holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Dynamo Dresden has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:9 (averaging 1:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Dynamo Dresden against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 3:4 goals (averaging 1:1.3 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Schalke 04 - the odds 1.81 are the expected chance of winning is 51.54%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dynamo Dresden
German 2 Bundesliga
25.10.26	Holstein Kiel - Dynamo Dresden	3:0 ✺
18.10.26	Dynamo Dresden - Magdeburg	2:0 ✺
10.10.26	Osnabrück - Dynamo Dresden	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.10.26	Teplice - Dynamo Dresden	2:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
19.09.26	Dynamo Dresden - Hertha Berlin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWTLL
- Schalke 04
German Bundesliga
24.10.26	Köln - Schalke 04	0:0 ✺
17.10.26	Schalke 04 - Mainz	0:1 ✺
11.10.26	Freiburg - Schalke 04	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Austria Lustenau - Schalke 04	0:1 ✺
24.09.26	Rot-Weiß Oberhausen - Schalke 04	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
07.02.26	Schalke 04 - Dynamo Dresden	2:2
31.08.25	Dynamo Dresden - Schalke 04	0:1
01.04.22	Dynamo Dresden - Schalke 04	1:2
23.10.21	Schalke 04 - Dynamo Dresden	3:0
German DFB Pokal
18.08.14	Dynamo Dresden - Schalke 04	2:1

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