Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 14

Date: 28 November 2025, Friday

Location: Veltins Arena (Gelsenkirchen)

Referee: Reichel T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Schalke 04		Paderborn

	1	X	2
	2.55	3	2.9	Watch
	2.52	3.05	2.78	Watch
	2.63	3.25	2.96
	2.73	2.87	2.92	Watch
	2.56	3.08	2.8	Watch
	2.57	3.1	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 (2.59)	3.06 ↓ (3.28)	2.87 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Schalke 04
36.3%

Draw
30.8%

Paderborn
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

28.3%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

28.4%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Schalke 04 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Paderborn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Schalke 04 than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.5%	34.8%	8.7%

Schalke 04 - Paderborn Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Schalke will win (votes: 13 - 65%). Paderborn will win (votes: 1 - 5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Schalke: 44.1% – 85.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Schalke (4.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Paderborn (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Schalke 04 will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Schalke (votes: 7 - 70%). Paderborn (votes: 1 - 10%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Karius L. (G) 43. Ayhan M. 25. Katic N. 4. Kurucay H. 35. Wallentowitz M. 23. El-Faouzi S. 6. Schallenberg R. 33. Becker V. 18. Antwi-Adjei C. 19. Karaman K. (C) 9. Sylla M.	41. Seimen D. (G) 25. Scheller T. 20. Gotze F. (C) 4. Brackelmann C. 17. Curda L. 22. Hansen M. 5. Castaneda S. 23. Obermair R. 7. Bilbija F. 14. Baur M. 27. Tigges S.
Substitutes
14. Bachmann J. 37. Gruger M. 34. Gulasi A. 11. Lasme B. 41. Matriciani H. 32. Podlech L. (G) 46. Popperl P. 27. Porath F. 2. Sanchez F.	9. Batzner N. 28. Copado L. 6. Engelns L. 26. Klaas S. 30. Marino S. 11. Michel S. 1. Schubert M. (G) 3. Sticker J. 18. Worner M.
Coaches
Muslic M.	Kettemann R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', Brackelmann C. 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Curda L. ⚽, Obermair R. (A),
45+3', 1 - 1, Karaman K. ⚽, Sylla M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Gotze F. 🟨,
62', Brackelmann C. ↓, Michel S. ↑,
62', Bilbija F. ↓, Klaas S. ↑,
67', Antwi-Adjei C. ↓, Lasme B. ↑,
74', Baur M. ↓, Batzner N. ↑,
74', Castaneda S. ↓, Engelns L. ↑,
83', Curda L. 🟨,
83', Karaman K. 🟨,
85', Schallenberg R. ↓, Popperl P. ↑,
85', Wallentowitz M. ↓, Porath F. ↑,
86', 2 - 1, Lasme B. ⚽, Karaman K. (A),
88', Hansen M. ↓, Marino S. ↑,
89', Becker V. ↓, Sanchez F. ↑,
89', Sylla M. ↓, Bachmann J. ↑,
90+8', Karius L. 🟨,
90+8', Batzner N. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Schalke won 2.

Schalke has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Paderborn has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Schalke has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Schalke: Amoussou-Tchibara Z. (Knee Injury) Becker T. (Knee Injury) Gomis C. (Hamstring Injury) Hojlund E. (Heel Injury) Kalas T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Remmert P. (Inactive) Younes A. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Paderborn: Hoffmeier M. (Knee Injury) Muller R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Paderborn: Brackelmann C. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Schalke won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 28:15. (average 2.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Schalke won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:7. (average 2:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Schalke 04 - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 35.83%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Schalke 04
German 2 Bundesliga
22.11.25	Preußen Münster - Schalke 04	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
13.11.25	Twente - Schalke 04	1:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
08.11.25	Schalke 04 - Elversberg	1:0 ✺
01.11.25	Karlsruher - Schalke 04	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
29.10.25	Darmstadt - Schalke 04	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLWLL
- SC Paderborn 07
German 2 Bundesliga
22.11.25	Paderborn - Hannover	0:2 ✺
09.11.25	Magdeburg - Paderborn	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Paderborn - Greuther Fürth	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
29.10.25	Paderborn - Bayer Leverkusen	2:4 ET ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
25.10.25	Dynamo Dresden - Paderborn	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
02.05.25	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	0:2
06.12.24	Paderborn - Schalke 04	2:4
09.03.24	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	3:3
29.09.23	Paderborn - Schalke 04	3:1
18.02.22	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	2:0
12.09.21	Paderborn - Schalke 04	0:1
Club Friendly
08.10.20	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	5:1

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