Match Info

Serie D - Round 14

Date: 27 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Aracaju)


	Sergipe		Jequié

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.3	4.8
	1.62	3.4	4.95
	1.62	3.47	5.56
	1.66	3.37	5.53	Watch
	1.59	3.36	5.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.87)	3.38 ↑ (3.32)	5.33 ↑ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sergipe
55.9%

Draw
26.9%

Jequié
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

27.2%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7%

22.9%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sergipe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sergipe's performance.

Jequié has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jequié might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sergipe than the current prediction. (-15.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sergipe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jequié than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jequié could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sergipe - Jequié Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 5).

Recent performances by Sergipe have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Jequié has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Sergipe is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sergipe won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Sergipe
Brazilian Serie D
20.07.25	Juazeirense - Sergipe	0:0 ✺
12.07.25	Sergipe - Lagarto	1:2 ✺
05.07.25	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Sergipe	2:2 ✺
28.06.25	Sergipe - Penedense	2:0 ✺
14.06.25	União Carmolandense - Sergipe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TLTWL
- AD Jequié
Brazilian Serie D
20.07.25	Jequié - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:0 ✺
12.07.25	União Carmolandense - Jequié	1:0 ✺
05.07.25	Juazeirense - Jequié	2:1 ✺
29.06.25	Jequié - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:0 ✺
16.06.25	Lagarto - Jequié	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
20.04.25	Jequié - Sergipe	1:0

Sergipe - Jequié: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide