Match Info

Capixaba - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 26 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Estádio Municipal Roberto Siqueira Costa (Serra)


	Serra		Noroeste

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.35	4.15
	1.79	3.35	4.23	Watch
	1.8	3.1	4.2
	1.75	3.26	4.49
	1.56	3.6	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.56)	3.33 ↓ (3.6)	4.33 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Serra
52.1%

Draw
27.1%

Noroeste
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

24.4%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

24.5%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Serra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Noroeste has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Serra than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Noroeste than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Serra - Noroeste Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pedro Henrique (G) 25. Chico 6. Conrado 10. Dandan 8. Fabio Magrao 11. Marcudinho 9. Patrick (C) 4. Rossales 3. Ruan Lopes 5. Walney 15. Yuri	1. Giovani (G) 7. David Lima (C) 2. Diego 10. Erlon 17. Guilherme Brito 3. Ismael 5. Jaquison 6. Lucas Silva 9. Marcelinho 8. Matheus Recife 22. Romulo
Substitutes
22. Brizuela O. 20. Bruno Paixao 12. Dudu 14. Edson Mika 21. Gean Miller 19. Hygor 13. Jherlison 24. Knupp 16. Leonardo 2. Marcus Diniz 18. Rickelmi 17. Wendel	12. Alexandre Castro (G) 15. Antonio Junior 4. Arthur 23. Cezario L. 13. Felipe Affonso 18. Gabriel Lisboa 20. Gilbert 21. Italo 14. Kauan 11. Koki 19. Ribeiro S. 16. Sorriso

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Rossales 🟨,
33', Erlon 🟨,
39', Marcelinho 🟨,
41', David Lima 🟨,
45+3', Conrado 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Chico ↓, Hygor ↑,
60', Hygor 🟨,
69', Jaquison 🟨,
69', Fabio Magrao ↓, Bruno Paixao ↑,
73', Guilherme Brito ↓, Gabriel Lisboa ↑,
73', Marcelinho ↓, Italo ↑,
76', Diego 🟨,
78', Giovani 🟨,
78', Jaquison ↓, Francisco Arthur ↑,
83', Erlon ↓, Ribeiro S. ↑,
83', David Lima ↓, Felipe Affonso ↑,
84', Patrick ↓, Edson Mika ↑,
84', Conrado ↓, Wendel ↑,
85', Walney 🟨,
86', 🟨,
89', Francisco Arthur 🟨,
90+2', Italo 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 0, Marcudinho ⚽,
90+6', Marcudinho 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,
90+8', 🟨,
90+16', Gabriel Lisboa 🟥,

Preview

First leg result: 1-2. Second leg.

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Serra won 1.

Recent performances by Serra have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Noroeste is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Serra is considered a favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Serra won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:22. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Serra won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1.3:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Serra FC
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
20.02.26	Noroeste - Serra	2:1 ✺
12.02.26	Serra - Vitória ES	1:2 ✺
09.02.26	Vilavelhense - Serra	1:0 ✺
03.02.26	Porto Vitória - Serra	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Serra - Rio Branco-VN	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LLLWW
- Real Noroeste
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
20.02.26	Noroeste - Serra	2:1 ✺
12.02.26	Capixaba SC - Noroeste	0:2 ✺
08.02.26	Noroeste - Porto Vitória	0:1 ✺
05.02.26	Noroeste - Desportiva Ferroviaria	3:2 ✺
01.02.26	Rio Branco AC ES - Noroeste	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
20.02.26	Noroeste - Serra	2:1
22.01.26	Noroeste - Serra	1:1
Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
25.06.25	Noroeste - Serra	3:4
Brazilian Serie D
06.07.24	Serra - Noroeste	2:2
11.05.24	Noroeste - Serra	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
07.02.24	Noroeste - Serra	5:1
24.03.23	Noroeste - Serra	1:0

Serra - Noroeste: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide