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Current Win Probability
Shimal 45.5%
Draw 27.7%
Baku Sporting 26.8%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
43.4%
26.3%
30.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
38.7%
23.4%
34%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Shimal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)
Baku Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shimal than the current prediction. (-6.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Shimal that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baku Sporting than the current prediction. (+7.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Baku Sporting could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Shimal - Baku Sporting Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Aliyev E. (Penalty Awarded),
40', 2 - 0, Aliyev E. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
50', 2 - 1, Huseynli S. ⚽,
70', 3 - 1, Niambele M. ⚽,
78', 4 - 1, Osmanov N. ⚽,
84', 4 - 2, Babayi A. ⚽,
90+4', 5 - 2, Quliyev C. ⚽,
Preview
Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 6th and 10th in the Relegation).
In recent outings, Shimal has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Sporting is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
In this matchup, Shimal is considered the favorite to take the win.
In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Shimal has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:5 (averaging 0.7:1.7 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Shimal against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:1 goals (averaging 0.5:0.5 per game).
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