Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 2 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Pittodrie Stadium (Aberdeen)

Referee: Strukan D. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Aberdeen		Shakhtar Donetsk

	1	X	2
	5.75	4.5	1.48
	5.9	4.45	1.49
	6.33	4.68	1.48
	1.96	3.68	3.54	Watch
	6.22	4.63	1.5
	5.25	4.3	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.24 ↑ (4.9)	4.37 ↑ (4)	1.85 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aberdeen
19.9%

Draw
23.8%

Shakhtar Donetsk
56.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

19%

23.3%

57.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.6%

22.8%

58.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aberdeen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Shakhtar Donetsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aberdeen than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shakhtar Donetsk than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.6%	4.3%	85.1%

Aberdeen - Shakhtar Donetsk Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 - Shakhtar (3.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Shakhtar Donetsk will win (40 of 47 users predict this - 85.11%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.93% – 95.29%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Shakhtar Donetsk will win (25 of 28 users predict this - 89.29%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. Aberdeen (votes: 2 - 6.9%). Shakhtar (votes: 26 - 89.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mitov D. (G) 5. Knoester M. 22. Milne J. 26. Dorrington A. 2. Devlin N. (C) 16. Armstrong S. 18. Palaversa A. 10. Clarkson L. 81. Keskinen T. 27. Lazetic M. 17. Karlsson J.	31. Riznyk D. (G) 17. Tobias V. 5. Bondar V. 22. Matviienko M. (C) 13. Henrique P. 29. Nazaryna Y. 37. Lucas Ferreira 27. Ocheretko O. 6. Marlon Gomes 10. Pedrinho 19. Kaua Elias
Substitutes
7. Aouchiche A. 77. Gyamfi E. 38. Lobban D. 11. Milanovic N. 21. Molloy G. 6. Nilsen S. 15. Nisbet K. 8. Polvara D. 4. Shinnie G. 13. Suman N. (G) 41. Vitols R. (G) 9. Yengi K.	16. Azarovi I. 21. Bondarenko A. 74. Faryna M. 23. Fesyun K. (G) 18. Ghram A. 20. Glushchenko A. 14. Isaque Silva 26. Konoplya Y. 8. Kryskiv D. 49. Luca Meirelles 4. Marlon 9. Shved M.
Coaches
Thelin J.	Turan A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Karlsson J. (Pen),
20', Henrique P. 🟨,
39', 1 - 1, Nazaryna Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', Karlsson J. 🟨,
54', 1 - 2, Lucas Ferreira ⚽, Marlon Gomes (A),
60', 1 - 3, Henrique P. ⚽, Marlon Gomes (A),
65', Armstrong S. ↓, Shinnie G. ↑,
66', Palaversa A. ↓, Nilsen S. ↑,
66', Clarkson L. ↓, Polvara D. ↑,
67', Lazetic M. 🟨,
67', Matviienko M. 🟨,
69', 2 - 3, Devlin N. ⚽, Lazetic M. (A),
71', Nilsen S. 🟨,
75', Devlin N. 🟨,
75', Pedrinho ↓, Isaque Silva ↑,
76', Kaua Elias ↓, Luca Meirelles ↑,
83', Lucas Ferreira ↓, Konoplya Y. ↑,
86', Karlsson J. ↓, Yengi K. ↑,
86', Devlin N. ↓, Nisbet K. ↑,
90+1', Riznyk D. 🟨,
90+2', Marlon Gomes ↓, Ghram A. ↑,
90+3', Tobias V. 🟨,

Preview

Aberdeen is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Shakhtar is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Aberdeen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Shakhtar is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Aberdeen: Jensen A. (Red Card)

There will not play in Shakhtar: Alisson (Foot Injury) Khromey M. (Inactive) Kornienko V. (Inactive) Petryak I. (Inactive) Savchenko R. (Inactive) Topalov D. (Inactive) Udod D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Shakhtar: Eguinaldo (Injury) Traore L. (Muscle Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Shakhtar Donetsk - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 57.62%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aberdeen FC
Scottish Premier League
27.09.25	Motherwell - Aberdeen	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Dundee United - Aberdeen	2:0 ✺
Scottish League Cup
20.09.25	Aberdeen - Motherwell	0:1 ✺
Scottish Premier League
13.09.25	Aberdeen - Livingston	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Aberdeen - Falkirk	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL
- Shakhtar Donetsk
Ukrainian Premier League
28.09.25	Rukh Lviv - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:4 ✺
22.09.25	Shakhtar Donetsk - Zorya Luhansk	1:0 ✺
Ukrainian Cup
17.09.25	Polissya Stavky - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:1 ✺
Ukrainian Premier League
13.09.25	Kharkiv - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Shakhtar Donetsk - Oleksandriya	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWWTW

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