Match Info

First League - Round 19

Date: 21 August 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Shakhter Karagandy		Astana 2

	1	X	2
	1.3	4.7	7
	1.2	5.4	7.6
	1.16	6.96	11.15	Watch
	1.3	4.55	6.45
	1.11	7.6	13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.21 ↓ (1.43)	5.84 ↑ (4.73)	9.04 ↑ (5.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 9.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shakhter Karagandy
74.5%

Draw
15.5%

Astana 2
10%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

63.9%

19.3%

16.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.7%

18%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shakhter Karagandy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Shakhter Karagandy's performance.

Astana 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Astana 2 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shakhter Karagandy than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Shakhter Karagandy that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana 2 than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Astana 2 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Kalybayev D. ⚽, Litosh A. (A),
40', 2 - 0, Litosh A. ⚽, Migunov A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
51', 3 - 0, Kalybayev D. ⚽,
75', 4 - 0, Ulshin A. ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 5).

Shakhter Karagandy is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Astana 2 has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Shakhter Karagandy is the undisputed favorite.

We predict that Shakhter Karagandy will win today's game, with odds of 1.34.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Shakhter Karagandy won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Shakhter Karagandy ✔	24	21	2	1	66:8	58	65
5	FC Astana 2	25	11	3	11	49:50	-1	36

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shakhter Karagandy
Kazakh First League
13.08.26	Aktobe 2 - Shakhter Karagandy	1:6 ✺
06.08.26	Shakhter Karagandy - Kaspiy Aktau 2	1:0 ✺
31.07.26	Tobol 2 - Shakhter Karagandy	0:2 ✺
24.07.26	Shakhter Karagandy - Arys	4:1 ✺
16.07.26	Batyr Ekibastuz - Shakhter Karagandy	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWWW
- FC Astana 2
Kazakh First League
13.08.26	Astana 2 - Tobol 2	0:4 ✺
31.07.26	Astana 2 - Arys	2:0 ✺
23.07.26	Akademiya Ontustik - Astana 2	2:1 ✺
17.07.26	Astana 2 - Jaiyq	1:0 ✺
10.07.26	Yelimay 2 - Astana 2	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh First League
21.05.26	Astana 2 - Shakhter Karagandy	4:3

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shakhter Karagandy
Kazakh First League
16.10.26	Turan Turkistan - Shakhter Karagandy	✺
- FC Astana 2
Kazakh First League
15.10.26	Astana 2 - Yelimay 2	✺

Shakhter Karagandy - Astana 2: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide