Match Info

Premier League - Round 16

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday


	Shire Endaselassie		Arba Minch

	1	X	2
	2.78	2.58	2.78
	1.52	3.94	5.91	Watch
	2.7	2.45	2.63
	2.83	2.83	2.75	Watch
	2.9	2.5	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↓ (2.63)	2.86 ↑ (2.76)	3.39 ↑ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shire Endaselassie
37.9%

Draw
33.7%

Arba Minch
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

32.9%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

31.3%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shire Endaselassie has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Arba Minch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shire Endaselassie than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arba Minch than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Shire Endaselassie - Arba Minch Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Waleche S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 14 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sihul Shire won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Sihul Shire won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Shire Endaselassie	38	9	15	14	24:32	-8	42
20	Arba Menche	38	7	14	17	30:46	-16	35

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shire Endaselassie
Ethiopian Premier League
16.01.26	Hadiya Hossana - Shire Endaselassie	3:1 ✺
08.01.26	Shire Endaselassie - Negele Arsi Ketema	0:1 ✺
04.01.26	Ethiopia Bunna - Shire Endaselassie	1:3 ✺
30.12.25	Shire Endaselassie - Adama City	0:1 ✺
25.12.25	Ethio Electric - Shire Endaselassie	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LLWLL
- Arba Minch FC
Ethiopian Premier League
17.01.26	Arba Minch - Mechal	0:2 ✺
08.01.26	Sidama Coffee - Arba Minch	0:0 ✺
03.01.26	Arba Minch - Hawassa City	0:0 ✺
29.12.25	Welayta Dicha - Arba Minch	0:0 ✺
24.12.25	Arba Minch - Mekelle 70 Enderta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Ethiopian Premier League
20.04.25	Arba Minch - Shire Endaselassie	0:0
18.01.25	Shire Endaselassie - Arba Minch	0:1

Shire Endaselassie - Arba Minch: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide