Match Info

Southern League Premier South - Round 40

Date: 18 April 2025, Friday


	Sholing		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	3.5	4.1	1.7
	3.6	4.3	1.69
	3.58	4.84	1.7
	3.36	4.51	1.83
	3.62	3.87	1.87
	3.6	4.3	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↓ (3.93)	4.32 ↓ (4.74)	1.75 ↑ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sholing
26%

Draw
21.3%

Merthyr Town
52.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.3%

19.3%

57.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.7%

18.8%

58.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sholing has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sholing than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Merthyr Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sholing - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
10', 0 - 1, Jarvis C. ⚽,
34', 0 - 2, Handley T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
84', 0 - 3, Simpson K. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South).

Sholing is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Merthyr is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Merthyr will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Sholing won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 1:7 (average 0.3:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Sholing won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sholing
English Southern League South Division
12.04.25	Plymouth Parkway - Sholing	3:1 ✺
05.04.25	Sholing - Taunton Town	2:0 ✺
29.03.25	Sholing - Hanwell Town	0:1 ✺
22.03.25	Poole Town - Sholing	2:0 ✺
15.03.25	Sholing - Basingstoke Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLLT
- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
12.04.25	Merthyr Town - Poole Town	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Hanwell Town - Merthyr Town	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	Winchester City - Merthyr Town	1:3 ✺
22.03.25	Merthyr Town - Chertsey Town	3:1 ✺
15.03.25	Gosport Borough - Merthyr Town	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
07.09.24	Merthyr Town - Sholing	3:0
23.12.23	Sholing - Merthyr Town	0:2
26.08.23	Merthyr Town - Sholing	2:1

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