Match Info

Southern League Premier South - Round 38

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday


	Hanwell Town		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.6	1.65
	4.4	3.6	1.67
	4.59	3.71	1.73
	4.21	4	1.64
	4.4	3.6	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.36 ↓ (4.89)	3.7 ↓ (4.15)	1.67 ↑ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hanwell Town
20.9%

Draw
24.6%

Merthyr Town
54.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.7%

22%

59.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.3%

21.5%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hanwell Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hanwell Town than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Merthyr Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Hanwell Town - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', 1 - 0, Carr D. (Pen),
78', 2 - 0, Mackenzie M. ⚽,
87', 2 - 1, Jarvis C. ⚽,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 10 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South).

Merthyr is Qualified for National League South

Recent matches Hanwell Town is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Merthyr is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Merthyr is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hanwell Town won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 3:15 (average 0.6:3).

Including matches at home between the teams Hanwell Town won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:6 (average 0.5:3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hanwell Town
English Southern League South Division
29.03.25	Sholing - Hanwell Town	0:1 ✺
22.03.25	Hanwell Town - Totton	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Gloucester City - Hanwell Town	5:0 ✺
11.03.25	Frome Town - Hanwell Town	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Hanwell Town - Walton & Hersham	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WWLLT
- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
29.03.25	Winchester City - Merthyr Town	1:3 ✺
22.03.25	Merthyr Town - Chertsey Town	3:1 ✺
15.03.25	Gosport Borough - Merthyr Town	1:3 ✺
08.03.25	Merthyr Town - Swindon Supermarine	2:1 ✺
01.03.25	Totton - Merthyr Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
24.08.24	Merthyr Town - Hanwell Town	2:1
16.12.23	Merthyr Town - Hanwell Town	4:0
19.08.23	Hanwell Town - Merthyr Town	1:4
01.04.23	Merthyr Town - Hanwell Town	3:1
08.11.22	Hanwell Town - Merthyr Town	0:2

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