Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 35

Date: 15 March 2025, Saturday


	Gosport Borough		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	3	3.1	2.15
	3.05	3.2	2.18
	3.27	3.01	2.24
	3.22	3.28	2.23
	3.03	3.5	2.07
	3.05	3.2	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↓ (4.99)	3.22 ↓ (4.1)	2.18 ↑ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Gosport Borough
29.5%

Draw
28.5%

Merthyr Town
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.3%

22.2%

59.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18%

21.9%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gosport Borough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gosport Borough's performance.

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Merthyr Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gosport Borough than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gosport Borough that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+18.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Merthyr Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Gosport Borough - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', 1 - 0, Yearwood A. ⚽,
34', 1 - 1, Rees R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
49', 1 - 2, Evans K. ⚽,
77', 1 - 3, Rees R. ⚽,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Gosport won 4.

Recent matches Gosport is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Merthyr is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Gosport have a series of guest games.

Merthyr will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Gosport won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 24:23 (average 1.8:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Gosport won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 13:9 (average 2.2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gosport Borough
English Southern League South Division
08.03.25	Dorchester Town - Gosport Borough	0:2 ✺
01.03.25	Gosport Borough - Chertsey Town	0:2 ✺
22.02.25	Plymouth Parkway - Gosport Borough	2:0 ✺
18.02.25	Frome Town - Gosport Borough	0:0 ✺
15.02.25	Marlow - Gosport Borough	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLLTW
- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
08.03.25	Merthyr Town - Swindon Supermarine	2:1 ✺
01.03.25	Totton - Merthyr Town	1:1 ✺
22.02.25	Merthyr Town - Bracknell Town	5:1 ✺
15.02.25	Wimborne Town - Merthyr Town	1:1 ✺
08.02.25	Merthyr Town - Plymouth Parkway	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
21.09.24	Merthyr Town - Gosport Borough	0:0
03.02.24	Gosport Borough - Merthyr Town	2:1
23.09.23	Merthyr Town - Gosport Borough	1:4
10.12.22	Merthyr Town - Gosport Borough	2:3
06.08.22	Gosport Borough - Merthyr Town	3:2
19.03.22	Merthyr Town - Gosport Borough	1:2
13.11.21	Gosport Borough - Merthyr Town	5:0

Upcoming Matches