Match Info

Southern League Premier South - Round 37

Date: 29 March 2025, Saturday


	Winchester City		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	4	4.1	1.6
	4.2	4.1	1.61
	4.5	4.31	1.64
	4.5	4.05	1.59
	4.2	4.1	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.28 ↓ (4.94)	4.13 ↓ (4.43)	1.61 ↑ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Winchester City
21.3%

Draw
22.1%

Merthyr Town
56.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.4%

20.6%

61%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18%

20.1%

62.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Winchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Winchester City than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Merthyr Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Winchester City - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
2', 0 - 1, Rees R. ⚽,
16', 0 - 2, Lucas L. ⚽,
44', 0 - 3, Cox C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', 1 - 3, Hodan R. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Winchester won 2.

Recent matches Winchester is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Merthyr in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Merthyr is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Winchester won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13:12 (average 2.2:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Winchester won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:2 (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Winchester City
English Southern League South Division
22.03.25	Hungerford Town - Winchester City	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Winchester City - Tiverton Town	0:2 ✺
08.03.25	Poole Town - Winchester City	3:2 ✺
01.03.25	Havant & Waterlooville - Winchester City	0:1 ✺
22.02.25	Winchester City - Sholing	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 WLLWL
- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
22.03.25	Merthyr Town - Chertsey Town	3:1 ✺
15.03.25	Gosport Borough - Merthyr Town	1:3 ✺
08.03.25	Merthyr Town - Swindon Supermarine	2:1 ✺
01.03.25	Totton - Merthyr Town	1:1 ✺
22.02.25	Merthyr Town - Bracknell Town	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
24.09.24	Merthyr Town - Winchester City	3:1
16.04.24	Winchester City - Merthyr Town	2:0
24.10.23	Merthyr Town - Winchester City	1:2
04.02.23	Winchester City - Merthyr Town	2:2
27.09.22	Merthyr Town - Winchester City	5:2
English FA Cup
22.09.18	Merthyr Town - Winchester City	1:4

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