Match Info

J1 League - Round 6

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima (Hiroshima) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
China	14:00	K-Ball
Japan	15:00	DAZN Japan


	Sanfrecce Hiroshima		Gamba Osaka

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.9	4.5	Watch
	1.65	3.85	4.65
	1.76	4	4.7
	1.68	4.04	4.77	Watch
	1.67	3.7	4.5
	1.69	3.82	4.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.62)	3.89 ↓ (4.17)	4.64 ↓ (4.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
55.7%

Draw
24.1%

Gamba Osaka
20.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.3%

22.6%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.3%

23%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Gamba Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	11.1%	22.2%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Gamba Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Hiroshima will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hiroshima: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Hiroshima (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Gamba Osaka (3.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Hiroshima (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Gamba Osaka (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Osako K. (G) 3. Yamasaki T. 4. Araki H. 37. Kim Ju-Sung 15. Nakano S. 6. Kawabe H. (C) 14. Matsumoto T. 13. Arai N. 39. Nakamura S. 10. Suzuki A. 17. Kinoshita K.	1. Higashiguchi M. (G) 15. Kishimoto T. 5. Miura G. 4. Nakatani S. (C) 21. Hatsuse R. 13. Abe S. 27. Mito R. 44. Okunuki K. 10. Kurata S. 8. Meshino R. 23. Hummet D.
Substitutes
9. Germain R. 11. Kato M. 41. Maeda N. 40. Ohara M. 99. Ouchi I. (G) 19. Sasaki S. 16. Shichi T. 33. Shiotani T. 18. Suga D.	18. Araki R. (G) 3. Handa R. 11. Jebali I. 30. Max P. 42. Minamino H. 38. Nawata G. 16. Suzuki T. 97. Welton 17. Yamashita R.
Coaches
Gaul B.	Wissing J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', Matsumoto T. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Arai N. ⚽, Kawabe H. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Matsumoto T. ↓, Shiotani T. ↑,
46', Meshino R. ↓, Jebali I. ↑,
49', Abe S. 🟨,
60', Kinoshita K. ↓, Germain R. ↑,
61', Okunuki K. ↓, Yamashita R. ↑,
61', Abe S. ↓, Welton ↑,
66', Kishimoto T. 🟨,
68', 2 - 0, Nakamura S. ⚽,
70', Suzuki A. ↓, Kato M. ↑,
70', Kawabe H. ↓, Sasaki S. ↑,
76', Hummet D. ↓, Nawata G. ↑,
85', Kishimoto T. 🟨,
86', Kurata S. ↓, Handa R. ↑,
88', Kim Ju-Sung ↓, Shichi T. ↑,
90', Handa R. 🟨,
90+2', Yamasaki T. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hiroshima won 2.

Hiroshima has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gamba Osaka is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Hiroshima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Hiroshima is the team to beat.

There will not play in Hiroshima: Arslan T. (Injury)

There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Fukuoka S. (Injury) Ichimori J. (Injury) Nakano S. (Injury) Uenaka A. (Injury) Usami T. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Gamba Osaka: Sasaki S. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hiroshima won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 33:22. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Hiroshima won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:12. (average 2:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	7	2	1	25:6	19	23
18	Gamba Osaka	10	1	4	5	10:18	-8	7

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 19.38% Gamba Osaka: 0.6%

Last Results with these Odds

Sanfrecce Hiroshima - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 58.26%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
AFC Champions League
11.03.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Johor Darul Takzim	1:0 ✺
04.03.26	Johor Darul Takzim - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
27.02.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Cerezo Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
17.02.26	FC Seoul - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLLWT
- Gamba Osaka
AFC Champions League 2
11.03.26	Ratchaburi - Gamba Osaka	1:2 ET ✺
Japan J1 League
08.03.26	Gamba Osaka - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:2 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
04.03.26	Gamba Osaka - Ratchaburi	1:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
28.02.26	Gamba Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	3:2 penalties ✺
22.02.26	Fagiano Okayama - Gamba Osaka	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
16.08.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Gamba Osaka	1:0
11.05.25	Gamba Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:1
08.12.24	Gamba Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3:1
Japan Emperors Cup
11.09.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Gamba Osaka	1:2
Japan J1 League
30.03.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Gamba Osaka	1:1
Club Friendly
10.02.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Gamba Osaka	1:2
Japan J1 League
25.11.23	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Gamba Osaka	3:0

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