Match Info

Allsvenskan - Round 30

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Studenternas IP (Uppsala)

Referee: Mattsson E. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	HBO Max, Veikkaus TV
Italy	Amazon Prime Video
Sweden	Discovery+, HBO Max, TV4 Play


	Sirius		Värnamo

	1	X	2
	1.25	6.5	8	Watch
	1.27	6.2	8.5	Watch
	1.3	6.35	8.21
	1.45	5.10	5.85	Watch
	1.29	5.95	8	Watch
	1.3	5	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.45)	5.85 ↑ (5.1)	7.59 ↑ (5.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sirius
71.6%

Draw
16%

Värnamo
12.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.3%

18.6%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.8%

18.2%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sirius has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sirius's performance.

Värnamo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sirius than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Sirius - Värnamo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Celic D. (G) 2. Castegren H. (C) 5. Carlsson T. 4. Anker T. 22. Krusnell O. 10. Heier M. 17. Lindberg M. 27. Jonsson N. O. 14. Walta L. 29. Bjerkebo I. 9. Ure R.	1. Keto H. (G) 19. Freij E. 6. Andersson H. 32. Raudonis A. 3. Bjornstrom A. 11. Antonsen K. 14. Antonsson M. 22. Thern S. (C) 18. Alsalkhadi M. 9. Meriluoto K. 8. Liimatta O.
Substitutes
1. Diawara I. (G) 19. Milleskog N. 8. Nartey M. 23. Neat F. 15. Sandberg S. 24. Svensson V. 18. Vikman A. 13. Voelkerling J. 21. Widgren D.	39. Andersson V. (G) 21. Diallo M. C. 7. Johansson C. 16. Kujundzic A. 4. Mohammed R. 20. Winsth F.
Coaches
Engelmark A.	Sandsto A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Freij E. (Own goal),
33', Anker T. 🟨,
41', 2 - 0, Jonsson N. O. ⚽, Krusnell O. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', 2 - 1, Alsalkhadi M. ⚽, Antonsson M. (A),
63', Meriluoto K. ↓, Diallo M. C. ↑,
65', Jonsson N. O. ↓, Milleskog N. ↑,
65', Krusnell O. ↓, Widgren D. ↑,
65', Heier M. ↓, Nartey M. ↑,
70', Liimatta O. ↓, Kujundzic A. ↑,
76', Bjerkebo I. ↓, Svensson V. ↑,
82', Raudonis A. 🟨,
87', Raudonis A. ↓, Mohammed R. ↑,
88', 3 - 1, Anker T. ⚽, Widgren D. (A),
90', Ure R. ↓, Neat F. ↑,
90+3', Bjornstrom A. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Superettan).

Värnamo is Relegated to Superettan

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sirius won 4.

Sirius is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Värnamo is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Värnamo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sirius is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Sirius: Ljungberg A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Värnamo: Coulibaly S. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Sirius: Sjogrell H. (Illness)

There are questionable in Värnamo: Abdulrazak I. (Inactive)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Sirius won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 29:9. (average 2.2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Sirius won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IK Sirius
Swedish Allsvenskan
01.11.25	Norrköping - Sirius	1:2 ✺
26.10.25	Sirius - Elfsborg	4:0 ✺
18.10.25	Häcken - Sirius	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	Sirius - Malmö	5:1 ✺
29.09.25	Djurgården - Sirius	8:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWTWL
- IFK Värnamo
Swedish Allsvenskan
03.11.25	Värnamo - Mjällby	0:5 ✺
25.10.25	Djurgården - Värnamo	6:2 ✺
19.10.25	Värnamo - Brommapojkarna	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	AIK - Värnamo	2:3 ✺
28.09.25	Malmö - Värnamo	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Allsvenskan
31.03.25	Värnamo - Sirius	1:2
04.08.24	Värnamo - Sirius	2:4
20.04.24	Sirius - Värnamo	0:1
25.09.23	Värnamo - Sirius	0:1
04.06.23	Sirius - Värnamo	2:0
10.09.22	Sirius - Värnamo	2:3
11.04.22	Värnamo - Sirius	0:0

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