Match Info

Vysshaya Liga - Round 24

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Junost (Mozyr)

Referee: Shiyan N. (Blr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Belarus 5


	Slavia Mozyr		Smorgon

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.57	9.25
	1.35	4.3	10.6	Watch
	1.4	4.3	7.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↑ (1.33)	4.39 ↓ (5.05)	9.15 ↓ (9.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Slavia Mozyr
68.4%

Draw
21.3%

Smorgon
10.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.4%

18.8%

9.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.9%

15%

12.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Slavia Mozyr has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Smorgon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Slavia Mozyr than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Slavia Mozyr that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Smorgon than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Slavia Mozyr - Smorgon Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Plotnikov M. (G) 7. Ivanov N. 13. Poloz V. 18. Melnikov N. 9. Batyshchev O. 22. Lukashov A. 12. Ivanov A. 44. Lutsevich T. 27. Chikida P. (C) 49. Dzhigero A. 31. Solovey A.	16. Vasilyuchek V. (G) 2. Bamba M. 8. Maslovskiy V. 9. Chebotar V. 3. Intsoen C. (C) 18. Aliyu H. S. 5. Firsov A. 20. Tonkevich V. 78. Yablonskiy M. 77. Bogdanovich I. 25. Bamba L.
Substitutes
3. Davydov V. 11. Gulko I. 21. Kirilenko K. 6. Kuznetsov Y. 30. Likhtin V. 5. Sachkovskiy M. 14. Sazonchik S. 23. Shelikov D. (G)	19. Azarko M. (G) 13. Dayneko A. 4. Diallo M. 6. Doumbia S. 55. Dubovik T. 17. Dukso M. 63. Kukhlejj R. 27. Tishko A. 21. Yezhov R.
Coaches
Bionchik I.	Dorokhovich S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
35', 0 - 1, Chebotar V. ⚽, Yablonskiy M. (A),
36', Aliyu H. S. ↓, Tishko A. ↑,
37', 1 - 1, Solovey A. ⚽,
40', Firsov A. 🟨,
41', 2 - 1, Melnikov N. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Bamba M. 🟨,
52', Ivanov N. 🟨,
53', Bogdanovich I. 🟨,
57', Tonkevich V. 🟨,
65', Chebotar V. ↓, Dukso M. ↑,
65', Maslovskiy V. ↓, Doumbia S. ↑,
67', Lutsevich T. ↓, Gulko I. ↑,
80', Chikida P. ↓, Kuznetsov Y. ↑,
82', Tonkevich V. ↓, Kukhlejj R. ↑,
82', Dzhigero A. ↓, Sachkovskiy M. ↑,
82', Poloz V. ↓, Davydov V. ↑,
85', Davydov V. 🟨,
89', Intsoen C. 🟨,
90', 3 - 1, Ivanov N. (Pen),
90+2', Solovey A. ↓, Kirilenko K. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 and 14 in the zone Vysshaya Liga (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Slavia Mozyr won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Smorgon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Smorgon has had a series of home games.

In this match, Slavia Mozyr is the clear favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Slavia Mozyr won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:5. (average 2.2:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Slavia Mozyr won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:2. (average 2.8:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Slavia Mozyr
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
27.09.25	ML Vitebsk - Slavia Mozyr	2:3 ✺
21.09.25	Slavia Mozyr - Dinamo Brest	0:1 ✺
12.09.25	Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk - Slavia Mozyr	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Slavia Mozyr - Slutsk	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	Dinamo Minsk - Slavia Mozyr	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLLWL
- FC Smorgon
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
28.09.25	Smorgon - Neman Grodno	1:0 ✺
24.09.25	Smorgon - Dinamo Minsk	1:2 ✺
19.09.25	Torpedo-BelAZ - Smorgon	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Smorgon - Naftan	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Smorgon - ML Vitebsk	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 47.4 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
16.05.25	Smorgon - Slavia Mozyr	0:2
25.10.24	Slavia Mozyr - Smorgon	0:0
31.05.24	Smorgon - Slavia Mozyr	3:3
26.08.23	Smorgon - Slavia Mozyr	0:2
14.04.23	Slavia Mozyr - Smorgon	4:1
31.07.21	Smorgon - Slavia Mozyr	0:2
04.04.21	Slavia Mozyr - Smorgon	1:1

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