Match Info

Vysshaya Liga - Round 23

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Yunost Stadium (Smorgon)

Referee: Yasel A. (Blr)


	Smorgon		Neman Grodno

	1	X	2
	4.12	3.58	1.85
	4.57	3.82	1.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.35 ↓ (8.1)	3.7 ↓ (4.05)	1.8 ↑ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Smorgon
21.8%

Draw
25.6%

Neman Grodno
52.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.4%

22.9%

65.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.8%

15.5%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Smorgon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Smorgon's performance.

Neman Grodno has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Neman Grodno might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Smorgon than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neman Grodno than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Neman Grodno, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Smorgon - Neman Grodno Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Smorgon (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Smorgon (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Smorgon (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Vasilyuchek V. (G) 20. Tonkevich V. 5. Firsov A. 77. Bogdanovich I. 27. Tishko A. 8. Maslovskiy V. 2. Bamba M. 18. Aliyu H. S. 78. Yablonskiy M. (C) 25. Bamba L. 9. Chebotar V.	12. Belov M. (G) 19. Kuchinskiy K. 20. Sadovnichiy I. (C) 46. Legchilin A. 27. Shamurzaev A. 6. Nazarenko A. 9. Pushnyakov S. 47. Kozlov M. 99. Borubaev G. 17. Zubovich E. 7. Klochkov Y.
Substitutes
19. Azarko M. (G) 4. Diallo M. 6. Doumbia S. 55. Dubovik T. 17. Dukso M. 33. Fazylov A. 63. Kukhlejj R. 7. Levkovets A. 21. Yezhov R.	59. Devyaten A. 11. Gavrilov Y. 44. Kontsevoy I. 25. Kulesh V. 31. Kurak N. 1. Malievskiy A. (G) 14. Minets T. 32. Pavlyukovets Y. 24. Yakimov A.
Coaches
Dorokhovich S.	Kovalevich I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', Tishko A. 🟨,
36', 1 - 0, Yablonskiy M. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kuchinskiy K. ↓, Yakimov A. ↑,
46', Borubaev G. ↓, Devyaten A. ↑,
57', Chebotar V. ↓, Doumbia S. ↑,
83', Nazarenko A. ↓, Gavrilov Y. ↑,
85', Bamba L. ↓, Dukso M. ↑,
85', Yablonskiy M. ↓, Diallo M. ↑,
88', Dukso M. 🟨,
90+2', Klochkov Y. 🟨,
90+5', Pushnyakov S. 🟨,
90+5', Bamba M. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 in the zone Vysshaya Liga (Relegation) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Smorgon won 1.

In recent matches, Smorgon has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Neman has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Neman may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Smorgon has had a series of home games.

Recently, Neman has had a series of away games.

In this match, Neman is seen as the favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Smorgon won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:15. (average 0.6:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Smorgon won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Smorgon
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
24.09.25	Smorgon - Dinamo Minsk	1:2 ✺
19.09.25	Torpedo-BelAZ - Smorgon	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Smorgon - Naftan	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Smorgon - ML Vitebsk	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Smorgon - Dinamo Brest	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 52.2 LWTLW
- FC Neman Grodno
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
24.09.25	Gomel - Neman Grodno	3:1 ✺
20.09.25	Neman Grodno - ML Vitebsk	3:1 ✺
15.09.25	Dinamo Brest - Neman Grodno	2:0 ✺
10.09.25	Molodechno - Neman Grodno	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Rayo Vallecano - Neman Grodno	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
11.05.25	Neman Grodno - Smorgon	0:1
23.11.24	Smorgon - Neman Grodno	0:0
29.06.24	Neman Grodno - Smorgon	2:1
01.10.23	Smorgon - Neman Grodno	1:3
14.05.23	Neman Grodno - Smorgon	3:1
19.09.21	Neman Grodno - Smorgon	5:0
07.05.21	Smorgon - Neman Grodno	0:2

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