Match Info

Premier League - First stage - Main - Round 7

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Ta'Qali National Stadium (Ta' Qali)

Referee: Zammit F. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Sliema Wanderers		Naxxar Lions

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.65	3.95
	1.5	4.27	5.82
	23.16	11.71	1.05	Watch
	1.72	3.56	4.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.02 ↑ (2.26)	5.8 ↑ (3.6)	3.76 ↑ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sliema Wanderers
24.5%

Draw
29.7%

Naxxar Lions
45.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

25%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

24%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sliema Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sliema Wanderers's form might have worsened.

Naxxar Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Naxxar Lions's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sliema Wanderers than the current prediction. (+17.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sliema Wanderers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naxxar Lions than the current prediction. (-12.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Naxxar Lions, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Sliema Wanderers - Naxxar Lions Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Sliema Wanderers will win (votes: 12 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sliema Wanderers: 100% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Sliema Wanderers (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Sliema Wanderers (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sliema Wanderers will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Sliema Wanderers (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Al Tumi R. (G) 17. Bah M. 11. Beerman M. 2. Borg J. (C) 42. Diarra B. 94. Fernandinho 5. Frendo N. 31. Murilo Henrique 9. Plut V. 12. Prsa R. 93. Thiaguinho	1. Debono M. (C) 28. Bonanno G. 21. Fenech M. 9. Firmino 30. Guehi S. 5. Gustavo Felipe 33. Joao Moura 13. Mariano 19. Rosiel 24. Vinicius Baiano 11. Vitinho
Substitutes
18. Agius E. 25. Agu E. (G) 15. Gustavo Alcino 4. Hijazi U. 1. Lauri F. (G) 98. Miguel Baggio 14. Nwoko K. 7. Overend A. 70. Pisani S. 21. Strickland N. 20. Wescley	23. Agius D. 29. Borg J. 44. Bugeja F. 26. Fenech J. 7. Fenech M. 99. Friggieri G. 14. Gauci C. 22. Kontchou C. 8. Pace Cocks N. 25. Portelli O. 4. Theo Kruger
Coaches
Zammit P.	Vella G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
16', 0 - 1, Joao Moura ⚽,
22', Fernandinho 🟨,
26', Fenech M. 🟨,
28', Diarra B. 🟨,
42', 0 - 2, Bonanno G. ⚽,
45+2', 0 - 3, Vitinho ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', 🟨,
54', 🟨,
83', 🟥,
84', 0 - 4, Vitinho ⚽,
84', 🟨,
85', 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (First stage ~ Top 6: ) and 12 in the zone Premier League (First stage ~ Play Out: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sliema Wanderers won 4.

Sliema Wanderers has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Naxxar has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Sliema Wanderers may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Sliema Wanderers has had a series of home games.

Sliema Wanderers might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Sliema Wanderers won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 32:15. (average 2.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sliema Wanderers won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:6. (average 1.9:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sliema Wanderers
Maltese Premier League
24.09.25	Sliema Wanderers - Gżira United	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Sliema Wanderers - Valletta	1:1 ✺
16.09.25	Sliema Wanderers - Birkirkara	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Sliema Wanderers - Tarxien Rainbows	1:0 ✺
22.08.25	Sliema Wanderers - Mosta	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WTTWL
- Naxxar Lions
Maltese Premier League
24.09.25	Birkirkara - Naxxar Lions	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Paola Hibernians - Naxxar Lions	2:0 ✺
16.09.25	Naxxar Lions - Tarxien Rainbows	2:3 ✺
13.09.25	Żabbar St. Patrick - Naxxar Lions	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Naxxar Lions - Marsaxlokk	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
17.01.25	Sliema Wanderers - Naxxar Lions	4:0
07.11.24	Naxxar Lions - Sliema Wanderers	0:3
20.04.24	Sliema Wanderers - Naxxar Lions	0:0
17.12.23	Naxxar Lions - Sliema Wanderers	1:4
Maltese Challenge League
25.02.23	Sliema Wanderers - Naxxar Lions	3:1
27.08.22	Naxxar Lions - Sliema Wanderers	1:2
Maltese Premier League
06.01.18	Sliema Wanderers - Naxxar Lions	1:1

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