Match Info

Premier League - First stage - Play Out - Round 12

Date: 25 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: Victor Tedesco Stadium (Hamrun)

Referee: Casha D. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Paola Hibernians		Naxxar Lions

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.92	3.25	3.45
	1.85	3.38	3.93
	1.90	3.54	3.58	Watch
	1.92	3.26	3.66
	1.9	3.2	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.74)	3.33 ↑ (3.3)	3.6 ↓ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paola Hibernians
47.7%

Draw
27.2%

Naxxar Lions
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

27%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.9%

25.6%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paola Hibernians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Naxxar Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paola Hibernians than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paola Hibernians, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naxxar Lions than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Paola Hibernians - Naxxar Lions Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Branescu L. (G) 4. Alfred S. 22. Bonnici D. 6. Caruana L. 96. Charleston 27. Cleiton 11. Kristensen B. (C) 18. Pablo Alves 44. Pedrao 41. Pedro Cacho 7. Villela L.	1. Debono M. (G) 20. Costa Goncalves G. 10. Farias E. (C) 14. Gauci C. 30. Guehi S. 5. Gustavo Felipe 33. Joao Moura 8. Pace Cocks N. 19. Rosiel 4. Theo Kruger 11. Vitinho
Substitutes
19. Abela L. 8. Attard A. 21. Buhagiar L. 24. Camilleri C. (G) 23. Ellul M. 70. Lima M. 20. Muscat D. 2. Ohaka J. 30. Sacco H. (G) 16. Sultana J. 15. Vella D.	28. Bonanno G. 29. Borg J. 44. Bugeja F. 9. Firmino 17. Haber K. 31. Hudson M. 22. Kontchou C. 13. Mariano 21. Micallef M. 25. Portelli O. 99. Vella A. (G)
Coaches
Nisevic B.	Vella G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Kristensen B. 🟨,
31', Costa Goncalves G. 🟨,
44', Pace Cocks N. 🟨,
45+3', Bonnici D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', Farias E. ↓, Firmino ↑,
69', Guehi S. 🟨,
70', 1 - 0, Villela L. (Pen),
71', Alfred S. 🟨,
71', 1 - 1, Firmino ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hibernians won 4.

Hibernians has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Naxxar has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Hibernians will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Hibernians won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 41:11. (average 2.6:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Hibernians won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:10. (average 2.1:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paola Hibernians
Maltese Premier League
01.11.25	Paola Hibernians - Marsaxlokk	2:2 ✺
29.10.25	Paola Hibernians - Sliema Wanderers	2:3 ✺
25.10.25	Valletta - Paola Hibernians	1:0 ✺
03.10.25	Paola Hibernians - Floriana	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Hamrun Spartans - Paola Hibernians	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLLLL
- Naxxar Lions
Maltese Premier League
03.11.25	Gżira United - Naxxar Lions	2:1 ✺
29.10.25	Mosta - Naxxar Lions	3:0 ✺
26.10.25	Naxxar Lions - Hamrun Spartans	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	Naxxar Lions - Valletta	0:1 ✺
28.09.25	Sliema Wanderers - Naxxar Lions	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
20.09.25	Paola Hibernians - Naxxar Lions	2:0
11.04.25	Paola Hibernians - Naxxar Lions	0:1
09.03.25	Paola Hibernians - Naxxar Lions	3:2
Maltese FA Trophy
06.03.25	Paola Hibernians - Naxxar Lions	2:0
Maltese Premier League
17.08.24	Naxxar Lions - Paola Hibernians	1:2
02.03.24	Paola Hibernians - Naxxar Lions	0:2
28.10.23	Naxxar Lions - Paola Hibernians	0:0

Paola Hibernians - Naxxar Lions: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide