The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Arsenal Tula 36.7%
Draw 29.7%
Spartak Kostroma 33.6%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
33%
29.4%
37.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
32.5%
28.9%
38.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arsenal Tula has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)
Spartak Kostroma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (-4.2%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spartak Kostroma than the current prediction. (+4.6%)
Arsenal Tula - Spartak Kostroma Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
42. Melikhov A. (G) 77. Plotnikov D. 4. Penchikov D. 24. Gotsuk K. 22. Uridia G. 8. Shamkin D. 35. Enin I. 19. Glushkov N. 25. Biryukov A. 23. Melekestsev T. 11. Magomedov R.
68. Gaydash M. (G) 5. Zhilmostnykh D. 6. Mohammadi N. 21. Bugarin M. 96. Mokhammad A. 18. Kamilov V. 17. Kaptilovich D. 22. Nemchenko A. 82. Nikiforenko O. 87. Spahic A. 90. Kalmykov A.
Substitutes
82. Alekhin A. 14. Brnovic M. 9. Davidyan D. 71. Efremov A. 17. Gorbunov I. 5. Krashevskiy Y. 36. Levashov M. (G) 18. Tsulaya M. (G) 75. Zhamaletdinov T. 10. Zhigulev I.
3. Bugriev S. 70. Chervyakov R. 69. Chursin K. 8. Demchenko N. 11. Ghurtskaia D. 10. Karaev D. 73. Kirakosyan D. 77. Meshcheryakov I. 66. Nikiforov M. 13. Rubtsov I. 50. Shamov E. (G)
Coaches
Alenichev D.
Ashikhmin A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 2)
6', 1 - 0, Melekestsev T. ⚽,
23', 2 - 0, Biryukov A. ⚽,
30', Plotnikov D. 🟨,
37', 2 - 1, Kalmykov A. (Penalty Awarded),
38', 2 - 2, Nikiforenko O. ⚽,
39', Nikiforenko O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Nikiforenko O. ↓, Karaev D. ↑,
46', Glushkov N. ↓, Brnovic M. ↑,
54', Brnovic M. 🟨,
63', Karaev D. 🟨,
63', Uridia G. 🟨,
66', Enin I. ↓, Alekhin A. ↑,
66', Uridia G. ↓, Davidyan D. ↑,
68', Mohammadi N. ↓, Chursin K. ↑,
75', Kamilov V. 🟨,
75', Magomedov R. ↓, Gorbunov I. ↑,
76', 3 - 2, Melekestsev T. ⚽,
84', Kalmykov A. ↓, Bugriev S. ↑,
84', Kamilov V. ↓, Chervyakov R. ↑,
90+2', Bugarin M. 🟨,
Preview
A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 12th and 3rd in the Promotion - Premier League (Promotion: )).
Arsenal has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Spartak Kostroma is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
Spartak Kostroma could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Recently, Arsenal has faced a series of away games on the road.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Arsenal has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:4 (averaging 1:1.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Arsenal against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 2:3 goals (averaging 1:1.5 per game).
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Melikhov A. (G) 
Mohammadi N. 
Bugarin M. 
Nikiforenko O. 
Spahic A. 
Davidyan D. 
Ghurtskaia D. 
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