Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 20

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday


	Sora		Vigor Senigallia

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.05	2.78
	2.39	3.19	2.77	Watch
	2.35	3.1	2.74
	2.37	3.1	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.39)	3.11 ↓ (3.43)	2.77 ↑ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sora
38.3%

Draw
29.1%

Vigor Senigallia
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

26.4%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

27.1%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Vigor Senigallia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sora than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vigor Senigallia than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Sora - Vigor Senigallia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, De Feo G. ⚽,
45+2', 1 - 1, Fili G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+2', 1 - 2, (Own goal),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 7).

Sora has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vigor Senigallia is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sora won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Sora won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Vigor Senigallia	6	4	1	1	14:10	4	13

Last Results with these Odds

Sora - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 37.87%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD GC Sora
Italian Serie D - Group F
11.01.26	Chieti - Sora	3:2 ✺
04.01.26	Sora - Giulianova	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Sora - Castelfidardo	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	UniPomezia - Sora	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Sora - Recanatese	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWTL
- FC Vigor Senigallia
Italian Serie D - Group F
11.01.26	Giulianova - Vigor Senigallia	0:0 ✺
04.01.26	Vigor Senigallia - Maceratese	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Vigor Senigallia - UniPomezia	3:2 ✺
14.12.25	Chieti - Vigor Senigallia	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Vigor Senigallia - Castelfidardo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group F
21.09.25	Vigor Senigallia - Sora	0:2
20.10.24	Vigor Senigallia - Sora	0:1
28.03.24	Sora - Vigor Senigallia	0:1
19.11.23	Vigor Senigallia - Sora	1:1

Sora - Vigor Senigallia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide