Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 15

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday


	Vigor Senigallia		Castelfidardo

	1	X	2
	1.69	3.36	4.3
	1.73	3.56	4.29	Watch
	1.69	3.46	4.54
	1.71	3.5	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.94)	3.47 ↓ (3.5)	4.37 ↑ (3.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vigor Senigallia
53.1%

Draw
26.1%

Castelfidardo
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

26.1%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

23.5%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vigor Senigallia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vigor Senigallia's performance.

Castelfidardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Castelfidardo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vigor Senigallia than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vigor Senigallia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castelfidardo than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Castelfidardo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Vigor Senigallia - Castelfidardo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Caprari N. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
83', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

In recent matches, Vigor Senigallia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Castelfidardo is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Vigor Senigallia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Vigor Senigallia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Vigor Senigallia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Vigor Senigallia
Italian Serie D - Group F
30.11.25	Atletico Ascoli - Vigor Senigallia	2:1 ✺
23.11.25	Vigor Senigallia - Recanatese	1:1 ✺
16.11.25	Ancona - Vigor Senigallia	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Vigor Senigallia - San Marino Calcio	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	L Aquila - Vigor Senigallia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LTTWL
- Castelfidardo Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group F
30.11.25	Castelfidardo - Giulianova	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Maceratese - Castelfidardo	2:0 ✺
16.11.25	Castelfidardo - UniPomezia	2:3 ✺
09.11.25	Chieti - Castelfidardo	1:2 ✺
02.11.25	Recanatese - Castelfidardo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group F
05.01.25	Vigor Senigallia - Castelfidardo	0:2
Coppa Italia Serie D
27.11.24	Vigor Senigallia - Castelfidardo	1:2

Vigor Senigallia - Castelfidardo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide