Match Info

Paraibano - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Antonio Mariz (Marizao) (Sousa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT


	Sousa		Campinense

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.9	3.2
	2.28	2.92	3.05
	2.25	2.89	3.3
	2.25	2.7	3.3
	2.26	3.14	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.14)	2.91 ↓ (2.99)	3.22 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sousa
40.6%

Draw
31.2%

Campinense
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

30%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

31.6%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sousa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Campinense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sousa than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Campinense than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Sousa - Campinense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moises (G) 9. Bambam 8. Diego Viana 16. Felipe Jacare 6. Gilmar 2. Iranilson 11. Kiko 4. Marcelo 15. Nathan 25. Veraldo 3. Yan	1. Wallace (G) 2. Augusto Potiguar 7. Emerson Silva 3. Erik Henrique 10. Everton Heleno 4. Franklin 6. Jackson 11. Joaozinho 5. Lidio 9. Miguel Souza 8. Patrik

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Miguel Souza ↓, Lucio Maranhao ↑,
24', Iranilson 🟨,
32', Jackson 🟨,
32', Veraldo 🟨,
40', Wallace 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Lidio 🟨,
53', Nathan 🟨,
58', Veraldo ↓, Bambu M. ↑,
65', Kiko ↓, Alsen ↑,
70', Nathan ↓, Guimarães ↑,
71', Patrik 🟨,
71', Emerson Silva ↓, Thiaguinho ↑,
80', 0 - 1, Everton Heleno ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Paraibano (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paraibano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sousa won 4.

Sousa has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Campinense is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Campinense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sousa might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Sousa won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:15. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Sousa won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:6. (average 1.2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sousa
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
22.02.26	Sousa - Pombal	2:0 ✺
18.02.26	Campinense - Sousa	1:1 ✺
12.02.26	Nacional de Patos - Sousa	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Sousa - Atlético Cajazeirense de Desportos	2:1 ✺
01.02.26	Sousa - Esporte de Patos	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WTTWL
- Campinense Clube
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
22.02.26	Esporte de Patos - Campinense	1:0 ✺
18.02.26	Campinense - Sousa	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Campinense - Serra Branca	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Treze - Campinense	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Campinense - Botafogo PB	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
18.02.26	Campinense - Sousa	1:1
29.01.25	Sousa - Campinense	2:0
17.02.24	Sousa - Campinense	3:0
Brazilian Serie D
03.07.23	Campinense - Sousa	1:2
28.05.23	Sousa - Campinense	2:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
25.01.23	Sousa - Campinense	0:1
27.04.22	Campinense - Sousa	1:1

Sousa - Campinense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide