Match Info

Paraibano - Round 7

Date: 12 February 2026, Thursday


	Nacional de Patos		Sousa

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.2	2.15
	3	2.98	2.28
	2.94	2.86	2.41
	2.95	3	2.38
	2.9	2.88	2.3
	3.11	2.94	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↓ (3.21)	2.98 ↓ (3.17)	2.3 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional de Patos
30.4%

Draw
30.3%

Sousa
39.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

28.5%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

28.4%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional de Patos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Sousa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional de Patos than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sousa than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Nacional de Patos - Sousa Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Nacional de Patos (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional de Patos (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Josue 17. Abnner Oliveira 2. Fabricio Recife 3. Gabriel Alves 5. Guto 18. Negrito 9. Pingo (C) 8. Renezinho 6. Tadeu 23. Thalison 20. Vitinho	1. Moises (G) 7. Aslen Kevin 8. Diego Viana 16. Felipe Jacare 6. Gilmar 2. Iranilson 4. Marcelo 18. Natalicio 15. Nathan 3. Yan 9. Yan Philippe
Substitutes
22. Clebson 7. De Araujo F. 10. Felipe Araujo 13. Gustavo 15. Jardel 19. Max Nobrega 30. Paulo Victor (G) 24. Renan 16. Riquelme 21. Rodriguinho 11. Rogerio 4. Tulio	13. Abraao 20. Crystian 23. Estevan 24. Franquelio 12. Joao Vitor (G) 22. Lucas Gabriel (G) 10. Lucas Zanatelli 21. Mateuzinho . Matheus Bambu 17. Neto Lisboa 14. Pedro Costa 25. Veraldo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Renezinho 🟨,
19', 1 - 0, Pingo ⚽,
40', Felipe Jacare 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Abnner Oliveira ↓, De Araujo F. ↑,
46', Natalicio ↓, Veraldo ↑,
46', Gilmar ↓, Abraao ↑,
62', Pingo ↓, Max Nobrega ↑,
63', Guto ↓, Gustavo ↑,
68', Aslen Kevin ↓, Crystian ↑,
73', Vitinho ↓, Riquelme ↑,
79', Nathan ↓, Mateuzinho ↑,
79', Yan Philippe ↓, Matheus Bambu ↑,
79', Negrito ↓, Renan ↑,
87', 🟨,
89', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 5 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Paraibano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional de Patos won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Sousa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Sousa is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Nacional de Patos won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional de Patos won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 0.7:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional de Patos
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
09.02.26	Serra Branca - Nacional de Patos	2:2 ✺
05.02.26	Nacional de Patos - Botafogo PB	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Atlético Cajazeirense de Desportos - Nacional de Patos	1:0 ✺
29.01.26	Esporte de Patos - Nacional de Patos	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Nacional de Patos - Confiança PB	4:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TTLTT
- Sousa
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
07.02.26	Sousa - Atlético Cajazeirense de Desportos	2:1 ✺
01.02.26	Sousa - Esporte de Patos	0:1 ✺
28.01.26	Sousa - Treze	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Botafogo PB - Sousa	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	Serra Branca - Sousa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
08.02.25	Sousa - Nacional de Patos	3:0
21.01.24	Nacional de Patos - Sousa	1:0
Brazilian Serie D
09.07.23	Sousa - Nacional de Patos	1:0
21.05.23	Nacional de Patos - Sousa	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
05.02.23	Nacional de Patos - Sousa	0:1
23.05.21	Sousa - Nacional de Patos	1:0

Nacional de Patos - Sousa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide