Match Info

BRAZIL: Paraibano - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 16 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Antonio Mariz (Sousa)


	Sousa		Serra Branca

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.25	4.2
	1.98	3.1	3.4
	1.76	3.25	4.4
	1.77	3.26	4.64
	1.85	3.2	4
	1.86	3.35	4.32
	1.76	3.25	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (1.98)	3.24 ↑ (3.1)	4.19 ↑ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sousa
50%

Draw
28.2%

Serra Branca
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

29.2%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.9%

31.9%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sousa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Serra Branca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sousa than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Serra Branca than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Sousa - Serra Branca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bruno Fuso (G) 9. Diego Ceara 16. Felipe Jacare 6. Fernando Ceara 5. Hebert 11. Ian Augusto 2. Iranilson 20. Luan Rodrigues 4. Marcelo 3. Uesles 17. Wellington Nunes	1. Allan (G) 8. Carlos Renato 11. Charles 7. Esquerdinha 2. Everton 10. Feijao 9. Iury Tanque 5. Jean Martim 14. Mateus Santana 6. Paulo Fales 4. Victor Ferraz (C)
Substitutes
18. Bruno Matos 28. Ciro 10. Dhonata 7. Elielton 13. Gustavinho 34. Gustavo Silva 26. Jackson 21. Joao Rafael 12. Joao Vitor (G) 15. Patrik 19. Vinicius Silva 23. Wellisson	18. Cal Rodrigues 17. Carrijo 13. Eduardo Melo 3. Flavio Nunes 19. Gabriel Morbeck 21. Geovani 22. Kadu 12. Prezzi (G) 16. Vidmar 20. Wanderson 15. Yago Taborda

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Marcelo 🟨,
45+7', Iranilson 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Paulo Fales ↓, Vidmar ↑,
48', 1 - 0, Jean Martim (Own goal),
57', Victor Ferraz ↓, Wanderson ↑,
57', Feijao ↓, Cal Rodrigues ↑,
57', Carlos Renato ↓, Kadu ↑,
70', Luan Rodrigues ↓, Patrik ↑,
70', Ian Augusto ↓, Wellisson ↑,
71', Iury Tanque ↓, Gabriel Morbeck ↑,
82', Felipe Jacare 🟨,
85', Wellington Nunes ↓, Elielton ↑,
85', Felipe Jacare ↓, Joao Rafael ↑,
90', Everton 🟨,
90+3', Diego Ceara ↓, Bruno Matos ↑,
90+5', 1 - 1, Jean Martim ⚽,
Penalties (4 - 3)
1, Gabriel Morbeck (Pen),
1, Wellisson (Pen),
2, Charles (Pen),
2, Patrik (Pen),
3, (Pen),
3, Iranilson (Pen),
4, Wanderson (Pen),
4, Elielton (Pen),
5, Everton (Pen),
5, Bruno Matos (Pen),

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-1.

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Paraibano (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Paraibano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Sousa has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Serra Branca is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Sousa could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Serra Branca have a series of home games.

Sousa will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Sousa won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:2 (average 1.5:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Sousa won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:0 (average 1.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sousa
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
09.03.25	Serra Branca - Sousa	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
05.03.25	Moto Club de São Luís - Sousa	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
27.02.25	Sousa - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
22.02.25	Sousa - Botafogo PB	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
19.02.25	CRB Maceio - Sousa	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLLLL
- Serra Branca EC
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
09.03.25	Serra Branca - Sousa	1:1 ✺
22.02.25	Serra Branca - Auto Esporte	5:1 ✺
13.02.25	Serra Branca - Nacional de Patos	2:2 ✺
09.02.25	Esporte de Patos - Serra Branca	0:2 ✺
03.02.25	Serra Branca - Picuiense	8:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
09.03.25	Serra Branca - Sousa	1:1
16.01.25	Sousa - Serra Branca	2:0
28.01.24	Sousa - Serra Branca	1:0
14.01.23	Serra Branca - Sousa	1:2

Sousa - Serra Branca: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide