Match Info

OFC Pro League - Winners stage

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	South Melbourne		Bula

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	1.3	5.2	7.7
	1.33	5.03	7.36	Watch
	1.25	5	8.5
	1.25	5.35	8.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.39)	5.15 ↑ (4.73)	8.08 ↑ (6.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Melbourne
71%

Draw
17.7%

Bula
11.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

19.5%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.6%

18.4%

13.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Melbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Bula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bula than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

South Melbourne - Bula Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Pope J. ⚽,
19', 1 - 1, Afazal I. ⚽,
34', 2 - 1, Mikkola M. (Penalty Awarded),
36', 3 - 1, Mesourouni A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', 4 - 1, Lampard J. ⚽,
80', 4 - 2, Krishna R. ⚽,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

South Melbourne may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, South Melbourne is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, South Melbourne won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, South Melbourne won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Melbourne FC
OFC Pro League
09.05.26	South Melbourne - South Island United	4:2 ✺
Australian NPL Victoria
08.05.26	Heidelberg United - South Melbourne	4:0 ✺
OFC Pro League
06.05.26	Auckland FC 2 - South Melbourne	1:2 ✺
Australian NPL Victoria
01.05.26	South Melbourne - Melbourne City Youth	1:2 ✺
24.04.26	St Albans Dinamo - South Melbourne	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWLW
- Bula FC
OFC Pro League
08.05.26	Auckland FC 2 - Bula	2:0 ✺
05.05.26	Bula - South Island United	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Bula - Auckland FC 2	2:1 ✺
15.04.26	South Melbourne - Bula	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Bula - PNG Hekari	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

OFC Pro League
15.04.26	South Melbourne - Bula	2:0
04.02.26	Bula - South Melbourne	1:1

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