Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 15

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: John Ilhan Memorial Reserve (Nasiol) (Melbourne)


	Hume City		South Melbourne

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	3.45	2.62	Watch
	2.29	3.7	2.72
	2.30	3.39	2.89	Watch
	2.3	3.3	2.63
	2.22	3.52	2.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.53)	3.47 ↓ (3.61)	2.72 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hume City
40.1%

Draw
26.3%

South Melbourne
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

25.3%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

24.3%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hume City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

South Melbourne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hume City than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Hume City - South Melbourne Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Hume City will win (votes: 7 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hume City (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Hume City (1.70) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Hume City (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
66', 0 - 1, ⚽,
73', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Victoria (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Victoria (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hume City won 1.

Hume City is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, South Melbourne has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Hume City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, South Melbourne has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hume City won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 18:33. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Hume City won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 1:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hume City FC
Australian NPL Victoria
23.05.26	Altona Magic - Hume City	1:3 ✺
16.05.26	Hume City - Avondale	3:0 ✺
09.05.26	Caroline Springs George Cross - Hume City	2:4 ✺
02.05.26	Hume City - Heidelberg United	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Melbourne City Youth - Hume City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WWWWW
- South Melbourne FC
Australian NPL Victoria
25.05.26	South Melbourne - Avondale	0:4 ✺
OFC Pro League
23.05.26	South Melbourne - Auckland FC 2	1:2 ✺
19.05.26	South Melbourne - Vanuatu United	4:0 ✺
Australian NPL Victoria
18.05.26	South Melbourne - Caroline Springs George Cross	0:4 ✺
OFC Pro League
11.05.26	South Melbourne - Bula	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
19.02.26	South Melbourne - Hume City	1:2
27.06.25	South Melbourne - Hume City	2:1
21.03.25	Hume City - South Melbourne	1:1
Australian Cup
11.09.24	Hume City - South Melbourne	2:3 ET
Australian NPL Victoria
30.08.24	South Melbourne - Hume City	1:0 ET
01.06.24	Hume City - South Melbourne	0:1
26.02.24	South Melbourne - Hume City	1:0

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