Match Info

National League North - Round 44

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday


	Southport		Leamington

	1	X	2
	1.44	3.8	6
	1.46	4.25	5.9
	1.49	4.26	6.28
	1.46	4.5	6.15	Watch
	1.44	4	6
	1.52	3.99	6.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.31)	4.13 ↓ (4.63)	6.11 ↓ (8.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southport
62.7%

Draw
22.3%

Leamington
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.4%

19.6%

11%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.8%

18.7%

10.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Southport's form might have worsened.

Leamington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southport than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Southport, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leamington than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Southport - Leamington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Brogan M. ⚽,
8', 0 - 2, Pais M. ⚽,
32', 1 - 2, Sze C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
84', Griffiths L. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 24 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Southport won 1.

Southport is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Leamington is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Leamington has had a series of home games.

In this match, Southport is the undeniable favorite.

We predict that Southport will win today's game, with odds of 1.45.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Southport won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:15. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Southport won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:5. (average 1.9:0.7).

Outrights of English National League North for now

Southport: 0.73%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
20	Southport	10	2	3	5	13:20	-7	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southport
English National League North
06.04.26	Curzon Ashton - Southport	1:3 ✺
03.04.26	Southport - Marine	2:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
28.03.26	Southport - Southend United	1:3 ✺
English National League North
21.03.26	Chester - Southport	1:2 ✺
17.03.26	Southport - Alfreton Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WWLWW
- Leamington
English National League North
06.04.26	Leamington - Alfreton Town	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Bedford Town - Leamington	3:1 ✺
28.03.26	Leamington - Peterborough Sports	4:2 ✺
24.03.26	Leamington - King`s Lynn Town	2:5 ✺
21.03.26	Leamington - Scarborough Athletic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
02.09.25	Leamington - Southport	2:1
04.03.25	Southport - Leamington	0:2
22.10.24	Leamington - Southport	3:0
29.04.23	Leamington - Southport	2:1
24.09.22	Southport - Leamington	1:0
12.04.22	Southport - Leamington	1:1
20.11.21	Leamington - Southport	1:1

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