Match Info

National League North - Round 40

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Deva Stadium (Chester)


	Chester		Southport

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.3	3.6
	1.93	3.3	3.3
	1.98	3.35	3.5
	1.93	3.56	3.77
	2.78	2.08	4.25	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.5
	1.97	3.42	3.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.92)	3.19 ↓ (3.43)	3.66 ↑ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chester
45.2%

Draw
29.3%

Southport
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

28.1%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chester has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Southport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chester than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Southport than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Chester - Southport Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
56', 1 - 0, Mottley-Henry D. ⚽,
90+1', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+4', 1 - 2, Lloyd D. ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 9 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chester won 2.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Chester may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Southport has had a series of home games.

Chester could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Chester won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 27:17. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Chester won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:5. (average 1.3:0.6).

Outrights of English National League North for now

Chester: 10.41% Southport: 0.73%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Chester	10	5	2	3	13:9	4	17
20	Southport	10	2	3	5	13:20	-7	9

Last Results with these Odds

Southport - the odds 3.43 are the expected chance of winning is 26.39%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chester City
English National League North
14.03.26	Kidderminster Harriers - Chester	1:1 ✺
10.03.26	Merthyr Town - Chester	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Chester - Darlington	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Chester - Spennymoor Town	2:1 ✺
24.02.26	Hereford - Chester	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 TWWWL
- Southport
English National League North
17.03.26	Southport - Alfreton Town	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Southport - Oxford City	1:3 ✺
10.03.26	Southport - Spennymoor Town	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Peterborough Sports - Southport	0:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
28.02.26	Southport - Yeovil Town	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
11.11.25	Southport - Chester	2:2
18.04.25	Southport - Chester	0:1
01.01.25	Chester - Southport	0:0
12.03.24	Chester - Southport	0:1
24.10.23	Southport - Chester	0:2
10.04.23	Southport - Chester	1:2
13.09.22	Chester - Southport	1:0

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