The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Chorley 37.6%
Draw 27.7%
AFC Telford United 34.7%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
41.3%
26%
32.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
43.5%
24.7%
31%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Chorley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)
AFC Telford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (+5.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chorley, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for AFC Telford United than the current prediction. (-3.7%)
Chorley - AFC Telford United Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Blakeman A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 2 - 0, Moore J. ⚽,
71', 2 - 1, Moult L. ⚽,
Preview
Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 12th and 21st in the Relegation).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chorley won 3.
Chorley has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
Telford has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Telford could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Chorley has recorded 8 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:16 (averaging 1.3:1.1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Chorley against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 13:6 goals (averaging 1.9:0.9 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
11
Chorley
13
6
2
5
23:21
2
20
17
AFC Telford
14
4
4
6
14:20
-6
16
Last Results with these Odds
Chorley - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.28%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.
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